The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) makes public its seasonal projections for the upcoming tropical season.
SATELLITE VIEW OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN
The forecast is alarming. NOAA suggests we could see 17 to 25 Named Systems, with 8 - 13 possibly becoming hurricanes, and out of that number 4 - 7 may develop into Major Hurricanes with category 3 winds, or those over 111 mph.
Compare that with the average of 14, 7, & 3, and we could be in for a hectic summer and fall. A reminder, this outlook can't tell us where and when a system will make landfall. It's just a guide as to how active a season might be.
2024 SEASONAL PROJECTIONS
SIZZLING OCEAN WATER
A storm needs a minimum 80° of water temp in order to grow, less than that and systems will not develop. Presently, readings across much of the Tropical Atlantic Basin are very warm, thus providing the fuel hurricanes need to develop and intensify
The next Main Ingredient will be the emergence of La Niña, across the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
- This is a cooling of the equatorial waters that not only impact marine currents, but atmospheric ones as well.
- It's the opposite of El Niño which is a warming of the same waters.
- While El Niño helps to keep systems in check in their developmental process, La Niña provides a more favorable environment for them to grow.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO for short) forecast, suggests El Niño waning thru June & July and La Niña emerging by July, August, and September. Unfortunately it will be near maximum intensity at the peak of hurricane season.
The graph above is set in three month intervals, with the first column showing AMJ, or April, May and June and the next batch MJJ, May, June, July and so on.
AN AREA TO WATCH
As of Thursday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area of clouds and rain around the Eastern Coast of Cuba, marked by the yellow X. It's a trough, or a stretched out area of low pressure.
Once it moves into the yellow area on the map, it may develop.
- NHC is giving it a very low chance for organization at the moment, at just 10% over a period of 7 days.
- If it were to develop any further, it should be a concern for marine interests.
This is a great reminder that we are about to enter the mean season. Let's work together to make sure we are ready for whatever Mother Nature sends our way.
WSVN will air a hurricane preparedness special, "Surviving a Storm", Friday May 31st, at 7 pm. It's full of great information to help you get ready in case of a threat. This is a, "must watch" for all. Specially our new arrivals to Florida and of course, a refresher for us hurricane battered veterans.
Please stay with us over the next 6 months. Hurricane season runs June to November.
The entire 7Weather Staff is dedicated to keeping you safe and informed. Please follow us on-air, on-line, and through my Phil Factor Updates.
Now is the time to prepare and get your storm survival plans ready.
We'll be watching
