Soggy Days Ahead

No one wants to hear about the possibility of heavy rainfall across South Florida, specially when our area deals with flooded streets and homes so often. Unfortunately, there is a threat for heavy downpours starting Sunday evening and sticking around through Tuesday.

SATELLITE LOOP

You can blame it in part, to this area of clouds and rain just off the SE Coast.  It is forecast to cross the state and emerge over the Gulf waters in the days ahead, pushing moisture in our direction. The National Hurricane Center (NHC), is also looking at this feature for possible organization.

WHERE MAY IT DEVELOP?


NHC THINKING
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system during the middle to late part of this week while it moves westward over the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf.  

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the mid to late portion of this week. Presently it has a low chance for organization somewhere inside yellow area.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

WHAT NEXT?


Even without tropical genesis, as the low moves westward, it could keep the state under high probabilities for rainfall thru Tuesday, and maybe even longer.

SOUTH FLORIDA RAIN
This low-to-be in the Atlantic, along with high pressure over the Gulf Waters, will conspire to keep our atmosphere unsettled which may lead to big bouts of rainfall.

NWSMiami suggests:

While there is a risk for a couple of marginally severe storms on

Sunday and Monday, the primary threat for this setup looks to be

periods of steady and heavy rainfall given an overall lack of

significant wind flow in the atmospheric column. 

• This could lead to stagnant showers and storms as well as training convection, plus chances for cold pools and associated outflow boundaries tospark additional showers and storms over the same areas. 
• Latest HREF LPMM pinpoints 3-5" or so over the interior sections of South Florida and 2-4" over portions of the east coast metro for Sunday. 
• If these amounts occur in a short duration of time, localized flooding will be possible. 
• With this in mind, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) still maintains a marginal risk (level 1 of 4 and a general 5% chance of rainfall exceeding FFG) for excessive rainfall for the eastern half of the CWA. 
• On Monday with the disturbance arriving and PWATs rising above the 90th percentile, WPC has a slight risk (level 2 of 4 and a general 15% chance of rainfall exceeding FFG) across all of South Florida.

The above data suggests possible pockets of heavy rain sitting over an area for prolonged periods of time.

BOTTOM LINE
As far as a Tropical Threat for South Florida at this time, the Worry Meter remains low. The potential for heavy rain however, is very high. 
Please stay tuned to WSVN, on-air & on-line for the latest.