They suggest we could see an area of low pressure popping up somewhere inside the yellow area. They're giving that possibility a 40% chance of happening, up from 20% Monday.
A weak front will enter Northern Florida by the end of the week, and stall over the region. This usually allows for some spin-ups to happen in the atmosphere. These spins can then turn tropical.
MODELS
🔴 The ECMWF has an area of low pressure emerging near Florida's Big Bend on the fourth. The outlook suggests moisture swinging toward South Florida and allowing downpours to develop.
🔴 THE GFS also places a low near the same area, and here too calling for rain spreading into south Florida.
So far models are not providing any real tangible tracks for whatever may develop, if anything.
LONG RANGE
Beyond the 7 day outlook, NOAA's forecast keeps us on the quiet side of things thru the middle of the month.
CLIMATOLOGY
History shows us that most systems developing in July, tend to do so in the highlighted areas, with the green zone being the most active.
Since a low could develop over a favored site, we'll keep watching for additional observations and analyses to help us in determining what the forecast may be. For the moment, it appears as only summer rain for the Holiday weekend.
The worry meter remains low for the NW Bahamas, South Florida, and Cuba.
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