CSU Hurricane Season 2024 Outlook

Colorado State University (CSU) , issues the hurricane forecast for the 2024 season.

They are calling for what may turn out to be a very active year, forecasting 23 named system, out of which 11 could turn into hurricanes, and out of that number, 5 could reach major status. Those are systems with winds over 111 mph. The average season sees around, 14, 7 and 3.  Last year  the Atlantic basin spawned 20, 7, and 3. 

What about direct impacts?

CSU suggests the following:

1) Entire U.S. coastline – 62% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) – 34% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville – 42% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%

Why the high numbers?

There are varied ingredients for the possibility of an above average season. The two most important are the temp of the ocean water and the emergence of La Niña.

In order for storms to form, ocean water should be at 80 degrees or higher.  Look at all the red over the Atlantic, temps here are off the charts. This is the area where storms tend to organize the most.

There should be enough fuel here to brew and intensify systems.

The second most important ingredient is the return of La Nińa. This is a cooling of the Equatorial Waters of the Pacific Oceans. It not only impacts marine currents, but atmospheric ones as well.  This will impact the upper winds in the Atlantic and provide a better environment for storm growth.

With these two ingredients present, CSU is forecasting an above average year. Remember, not one single forecast will tell you where and when we will see a direct strike. 

Now is the time to prepare for a season that lasts 6 month. Build up your hurricane kit little by little.

From now through the start of June, there will be many other institutions issuing their own forecasts. NOAA will issue their official outlook at the end of May.

Of course my pledge to you, as well as the entire 7Weather team,  is to keep you informed and help guide you through any threat.

I'll be watching.

Lee Latest

Hurricane Lee is poised to become a monster major storm later on Thursday.  As of 11 am, it is a category 2 with 105 mph winds.  It has a classic hurricane feature with good feeder banding and a visible eye.

It should stay very strong over the next 5 days

Thee National Hurricane Center (NHC) says it will continue to grow into a category 5 with 160 mph winds by Saturday.

• Per NHC: As stated above, Rapid Intensification (RI) is occuring, and will likely continue today.
• The question doesn't appear to be if RI continues, but rather how strong Lee will get, and how quickly will it get there. 
• Many of the models are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond rates normally seen with model forecasts. 
• Both HAFS models forecast Lee to exceed 150 kt within the next 2 days, and even HCCA brings the hurricane above the category 5 threshold.

Where is it?

The system is just under 1000 miles away from the Leeward Islands and roughly 2000 miles away from South Florida. Plenty of time for monitoring but not too much for the Turks & Caicos and SE Bahamas. They should closely monitor the storm.

Future Track?

NHC says: Confidence continues to increase

that Lee will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, though

swells associated with Lee will affect the islands starting

tomorrow. By the end of the forecast, the uncertainty is a little

higher, with the hurricane models (HAFS, HWRF) generally being

farther south than the global models. Very small changes were made

to the NHC track forecast, which is between the HCCA and simple

consensus aids.

Models

Models suggest a front will dive out the US and block the system from reaching land forcing it to turn north. However Bermuda will have to stay on top of it for a possible impact.

Bottom Line

As of this moment the worry meter for South Florida is low. Models are steadfast the system will eventually stop and move north away from the region.  

Until I see that front moving offshore and the turn reflected in the official forecast cone, I will continue to monitor it closely and so should you. 

The peak of hurricane season is September 10th. We should all be ready for whatever Mother Nature throws our way.

 

Lee Looms Large

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring the progress of what should eventually become a Monster Category 4 Hurricane by the name of Lee.

The satellite imagery shows a system that is well organized on its way on becoming a major hurricane by the weekend. Winds could surpass 140 mph.

Forecast Cone

High pressure to Lee's north will be the main driver pushing Lee WNW in the days ahead.  This will allow it to travel over warm waters in the mid to upper 80s. Anything above 80 degrees is the kind of jet fuel Lee needs for rapid intensification.

One key factor in determining how strong it will be down the road is the ring of clouds, heavy rain and gusty winds around the eye known as the eye wall. This ring tends to get replaced every so often and causes wind speeds to fluctuate. This may play a major roll over the weekend and into early next week.

Long term Forecast

Long range forecast will be a challenge.  

• By Monday, models suggest high pressure still pushing it west while a front moves off the nation's midsection blocking the system offshore. 
• This should allow Lee to skip the Bahamas and Florida. 
• The hurricane will look for the gap between the two and move north. 
• Many things will be at play here. Will the high keep moving west? Will the front arrive in time? Any of these could alter the path. 
• We should all keep tabs on Lee until we get a better handle on its future long range track.

NHC Headlines

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Saturday and

could bring impacts to the northern Leeward Islands this weekend.

While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of

these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the

progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast.

2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the

Lesser Antilles on Friday.  These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

There is plenty of time to watch this system. Its roughly a week away from being near the SE Bahamas.  

Lets take the time to review our hurricane plans and supplies.

We'll keep you posted

Florida Storm Threat

Get ready for a week of anxiety, specially for the West Coast of Florida. Impacts however, may be felt across the entire state. This is what we are covering.

HEADLINES

• Tropical Wave off the West Coast of Africa with a very low chance for development. Very far away with plenty of time to monitor.
• Invest92L in the middle of the Atlantic with a zero percent chance for growth as of sunday morning. 
• Hurricane Franklin is getting stronger. Should remain a powerful marine hurricane.
• BRAND NEW - TD 10 is now Tropical storm Idalia. It is practically spinning on its axis. Models suggest that will change. Expected to Strengthen Into a Hurricane Over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico in a Couple of Days. 

Tropical Storm Idalia

The system has been doing a slow clockwise trek as steering winds remain weak.

Why the crawl?

On this Mexican Weather office surface map above,  you will notice an "A", along the USA/MEX border. This is high pressure at the surface.

In the Upper Levels...

A bit hard to see, but once you find the Yucatan Peninsula, you'll spot an area of clouds. 

• The arrows flow counterclockwise, this is Idalia 
• In the Gulf of Mexico, you'll see the opposite spin, this is high pressure in the Upper Levels. This is helping to keep the system from intensifying now. 
• Both highs have also trapped Idalia not allowing it to move much and it's the cause of the slow movement. This will change.

Satellite

As of Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says:

• The overall cloud pattern has not become significantly better organized.  
• The small center is partially exposed on GOES-16 visible imagery
• Convective banding features are still not very well defined. Most of the rain is along the Yucatan Coast and Western Cuba 

Where may it go?

Steering currents should remain light until Monday evening. By then, high pressure over Florida will start to move East, while a front enters the Eastern US.  This creates a small road in the atmosphere between both features. This atmospheric alleyway allows Idalia to start making a move NNE.  When and how fast that turn will happen, depends on how quickly the front and the high move away.

72 Hour Forecast Map

The map suggests that by the middle of next week we could have Hurricane Idalia just west of Tampa. This is when it will turn even more towards Florida. 

How Strong?

 Reading left to right, you will notice the models indicating stronger winds with most topping off around tropical storm intensity. A few take into account how hot the Gulf waters are, and push the intensity into category 1 status. A couple take it into cat 2 strength.

Florida Impacts

NOAA says:

• The storm is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico 
• There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge, flooding from heavy rainfall, and hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday.  
• Storm surge and hurricane watches may be required for portions of the Gulf coast of Florida later this Sunday.

South Florida Impacts

The closest the system may get to South Florida is from Tuesday thru Wednesday. IF THE FORECAST PANS OUT, the worst will remain away from Broward, Miami-Dade and the Keys. Rain however, will be the trickiest to forecast.  Models suggest 2 - 2.3 inch range could come down. All depends on the  exact placement of the storm as it moves near us. 

The rain forecast keeps the big downpours offshore and into the Big Bend. 

Flood risk will be highest along the same area of heaviest rainfall. So FL is in the low risk area.

REMINDER

The atmosphere is in constant flux. Forecasts will evolve just as systems evolve. Any small jog west or east will change what we get. While no direct impact is slated for South Florida, check back from time to time for changes.

We'll keep watching.

The Tropics are on Overdrive

Many tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin Sunday, and one rare hurricane in the Eastern Pacific.

Let's start with Hilary, a rare tropical system that should impact Southern California and parts of the desert Southwest Sunday night and Monday.

Hurricane Hilary

The threat triggered California’s first ever tropical storm warning extending from the state’s southern border to just north of Los Angeles. 

Hilary is also forecast to be “the wettest tropical cyclone in state history,” according to the California governor’s office.

This is the most telling statement from NHC regarding Hillary.

"The potentially historic amount of rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening to locally catastrophic flash, urban, and arroyo flooding including landslides, mudslides, and debris flows through early Monday morning. Localized flooding impacts, some significant, are also expected across northern portions of the Intermountain West."

Data from NHC: 

• Hilary is forecast produce storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts up to 10 inches are expected across portions of southern California and  southern Nevada leading to dangerous to catastrophic flooding.
• Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is forecast
• Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through Tuesday morning, resulting in localized, some significant, flash flooding.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic Basin.

There are 5 systems being watched by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Two already developed, they are Tropical storm Emily and Tropical Depression # 6.

Tropical Storm Emily was named at 11 am.  

This is the latest from NHC:

• Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h)
• This motion is expected to continue for the next several days. 
• Satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
• Little change in strength forecast Sunday followed by gradual weakening. 
• Emily is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday. 
• Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center.
• ONLY A WORRY FOR Shipping lanes

Tropical Depression 6

Such a beautiful satellite image. You can see the center spin clearly with most of the cloud cover on the eastern side. This is where you will find most of the rain. Notice the line of clouds moving in the opposite direction both to the west and north of TD 6. These are strong upper level winds that will continue to take a toll on the system. 

TD 6 may only last thru Monday as those upper winds known as shear should shred it apart. 

Invest 90L

These are the rain chances from a possible tropical system for Puerto Rico.

Through Tuesday, high rain chances remain for the Island as well as Central & Northernmost Leeward Islands.

Good overnight to morning loop over the Eastern Caribbean Sea. This is invest 90L, now a broad area of low pressure. You can see that it already has a cyclonic spin to it.

Per NHC:

• Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure over the far eastern  Caribbean Sea. 
• Additional development of this system is expected
• A tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph 
• By midweek it should start turning northward and moving into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days. 
• Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. 
• A NOAA Hurricane Reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate the system later Sunday. 

Where is it headed?

If it does organize, most models take the center mostly over Dominican Republic & Haiti.  This is because high pressure over the Atlantic pushing it west will split and create a small avenue for the system to take north. Rain is still the issue.

Wave off Africa

This satellite loop shows Emily spinning over the upper left part of the imagery while picking up the very healthy wave off Africa.

NHC says:

• A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave. 
• Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
• A tropical depression could form later this week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
• Plenty of time to watch

Tropical Wave in Gulf

The on & off downpours South Florida has seen this weekend are due to a wave that has now moved into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. It has been deemed Invest91L

NHC Says:

• The wave is expected to lead to the formation of a broad area of low pressure early this week. 
• Some slow development of this system could occur thereafter as it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph
• A tropical depression could form as it approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by Tuesday.

These are the very early model runs:

I can't say it enough, this is a prime reminder we are in hurricane season and we should all be prepared in case Mother Nature sends something our way. We'll be watching.

The Tropics Awaken

This weekend South Florida will be impacted by rain from a tropical wave. A wave that may cause downpours and street flooding here, and maybe bigger headaches down the road away from us.

This is the wide Satellite view, starting from the overnight hours to daytime Saturday .

Along the West Coast of Africa you see a cluster of clouds. This is the newest tropical wave. It has a 20% chance for development over 7 days.

Invest 98L

• Most of the action is in the Central Atlantic, otherwise known as the Main Development Region, or MDR for short. 
• Three healthy spins are detected. Of the three, the farthest East is Invest 98L. 
• As you know, invest stands for an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 98 is a tracking number ( they go from 90 to 99 and start over again), and "L" stands for Atlantic Basin. 
• The broad low is sitting a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.  
• Presently moving west with a high chance for development. 
• If it doesn't develop soon, atmospheric conditions will deteriorate and prevent it from getting its act together.

If it organizes, where may it go?

High pressure is driving the system west. But in a few days, the high will split and the low will look for that gap and start traveling north. Here upper winds and Saharan dust are found.  They may spell the end for the low. We will keep monitoring as Atlantic waters are very warm. It could give it a boost.

Invest 99L

This is another broad area of low pressure.  Per NHC, its Located roughly halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles .

• It's Producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center. 
• Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development during the next day or two
• It's  moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph 
• As of this moment it has a low chance for growth.

If it develops, where may it go?

This low will try to sneak in the same gap left behind by high pressure. However if it's late in the turn, it may head west and impact the islands with plenty of rain.  DO NOT worry about the straight black line with the triangles. This is the extrapolation model or the persistence model. It merely suggests if there was nothing impacting the low and remained heading in the present direction, that's where it would go. Chances of that happening are extremely low.

Invest 90L

Courtesy Tropical TidBits

This is a Tropical Wave looking better on satellite imagery Saturday morning.  It's located  East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles . The National Hurricane Center has deemed it Invest 90L. 

• It's producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
• Some gradual development of this system is possible 
• A tropical depression could form during the early and middle parts of next week while it 
• moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.  
• Moderate chances for development

If it develops, where will it travel?

Models are still trying to figure this one out, but it is worthy of keeping tabs on it. Anytime a system threatens to move across the Caribbean, it has the potential to cause plenty of headaches. Everyone throughout the Lesser & Greater Antilles should monitor it for the next few days until it shows its hand. 

Tropical Wave

 

Clouds and rain across the Bahamas, Cuba, & South Florida are associated with a westward moving tropical wave. Once in the Gulf of Mexico it may try to develop.

• An area of disturbed weather located near the northwestern and central Bahamas is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week
• A broad area of low pressure is expected to form. 
• Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
• Medium chance for development 

While South Florida may just see some rain from this wave, it's a good reminder we're in hurricane season. Don't let your guard down we still have the most active part ahead.

We'll keep watching.

Tracking TwoTwo Tropical Systems are

Two Tropical Systems are being tracked. The national Hurricane Center (NHC) is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bret and also eyeing the potential for another system to develop.

Satellite View

This loop shows Bret spinning overnight and into Tuesday.  Its appearance remains largely unchaged since Monday. Presently, Tropical Storm force winds extend out from the center up to 45 miles. For the moment there are NO watches or warnings in place.

NHC says Bret is still forecast to strengthen into a hurricane over the next couple of days. The Lesser Antilles should monitor this system closely.

Where is it going?

The system appears to be tracking just north of due west. High pressure is still the main driver in steering Bret.

By the end of the week, the system should run into shear, or strong upper winds, and start weakening.

At that time it should be near the islands.

This is the forecast challenge:

• A mid tropospheric trough over Florida, or an elongated area of low pressure in the mid levels of the atmosphere, will start to weaken the high steering Bret.
• Drier is also forecast to start moving in on the system which should also help in weakening it.

In days 3 thru 5 of the forecast track, the models fan out. One of the reasons for that may be they are not handling the intensity of Bret well. Different strengths...different outcomes.

Message from NHC:

Lesser Antilles near hurricane intensity on Thursday and Friday, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves.

After it moves across the Lesser Antilles, it should make its way into the Caribbean.

Direct message from NHC:

Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor

updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane plan in place.

Invest 93L

This is an area of clouds and rain a few hundred miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands.  

Conditions are suggesting this wave could develop over the next few days. For the moment it will continue to travel west at 20 mph.

We'll be watching.