Dangerous Beryl

A record setting hurricane is churning in the Central Atlantic aiming for the Windward Islands and beyond. It has intensified very quickly.

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Beryl is now a Powerful category 4 hurricane. Extremely strong winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are forecast.

• When Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands, the highest risk of a core impact will be in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning.  
• Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands thru Monday. 

As of Sunday morning, it has now reached major hurricane status. Quick History update per CSU's Philip Klotzback.

Early morning- Beryl reaches Category 3 hurricane with max winds of 115 mph - the first June major hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on record. 3rd earliest Atlantic major hurricane on record, trailing Alma (6/8/1966) and Audrey (6/27/1957). 

Mid Morning- Beryl attains winds of 120 mph - the second strongest June hurricane on record.  

• Beryl trails only Hurricane Audrey (1957, 125 mph max winds). 

Early Afternoon- Beryl reaches category 4 intensity with 140 mph winds!

• This is the earliest calendar year Atlantic Category 4 hurricane on record.  Old Atlantic record for earliest Category 4 hurricane was Hurricane Dennis on July 8, 2005 

Recon Mission

At 11:35 Sunday morning -NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicated that Beryl had strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 130 mph (215 km/h) with stronger gusts.

Forecast Cone

The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the south of the previous run.

• Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands.  
• Strong Upper winds (Shear) should gradually increase when Beryl moves across the Caribbean Sea. It may weaken thereafter BUT  it is expected to remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days. 

Where to find the strongest winds

This forecast suggests the core of Beryl tracking across the Windward Islands Monday morning and then traveling over the
Caribbean Sea during the following days.  The purple swath is where those winds, 75 mph to Cat 3, (possibly 4 by then) will be registered. 

Areas along the Windward Islands may get up to a foot of rain, while in the Caribbean Sea, the downpours will taper off to 4 to 8 inches.

Two More Areas to Watch

Aside from Beryl, there is another area marked by the red "X", which has a 70% chance for developing over the exact same area Beryl currently resides.

Then in the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico,  a low has a 50% chance for growth. Even without development, it's forecast to drop plenty of rain there.

We'll be watching

Tropical Trio

Three Tropical Areas to watch as we head into the weekend. We could see the second named storm of the year and the first Tropical Threat for the caribbean.

What to Watch

1) Close to the Yucatan Peninsula, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is monitoring Invest 94 L. Invest stands for an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 94 is a tracking number and "L", stands for Atlantic Basin.   30% chance for development.

• This feature continues to generate showers and thunderstorms as it moves WNW at 15 mph. 
• Recon flight for today is scrubbed. 
• It should travel over land and into SW Gulf of Mexico for the first part of the weekend. 

2) Invest 95L - Low pressure roughly 1400 miles ESE of the 

Windward Islands is looking better defined.  Chances up to 100% for formation.

• Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization
• A depression or tropical storm could form as early as Friday afternoon.  
• It's moving W at 15 to 20 mph. 
• Land approach should be late weekend / early part of next week somewhere along the Lesser Antilles, more likely the Windward Islands.

3) A tropical wave a few hundred miles SSW of the Cape Verde Islands is showing some disorganized downpours 

• Slow development is possible next week as it moves W at 15 to 20 mph.

Invest 94L 

Satellite Loop

Even though chances for development are low at 30% over 7 days, it'll drop plenty of rain over parts of Central America, Cayman Islands, Cuba, & Yucatan. It may get a better chance for organization by Sunday in the SW Gulf of Mexico.

Invest 95L

Satellite Loop

The first Tropical Threat for the Caribbean. The Lesser Antilles should monitor closely as it could become an organized named system later on Friday or early Saturday.

Wave Action

While the center of the system is forecast to track into the Windward Islands, wave action will be felt as far north as the Leeward Islands by Sunday. As much as 8 foot seas there. Twelve feet along the center path.

Models

Keep in mind that until the system actually organizes, these forecast tracks are a good estimate and not set in stone. The projections are in agreement in the short term to cross over the Lesser Antilles and move into the Caribbean Sea. After that, they fan out which is typical of long range forecasts and also a sign there are too many variables and the models are not handling it well. Better outcomes once we have a good center fix.

Third in Line

Satellite Loop

This wave is the cluster of clouds and rain just off the West Coast of Africa. Should track south of Cape Verde.

Typically we don't see this much activity early in a season, but with plenty of climatic indicators suggesting an active year, we should all be reviewing our storm supplies and readiness.

We'll keep watching

** Some images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits **

Depression or Storm is possible this weekend

The Caribbean may be facing the first tropical threat of the 2024 hurricane season. An area of clouds and rain in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean has a high chance for development and could be near the Windward Island either by the weekend or start of next week. 

Satellite

The latest loop shows more storms starting to develop. It's spinning a few hundred miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands. The system is looking better organized and is showing signs it may be on the verge of becoming a depression or a storm soon.

Chances for development have risen to 90% as it travels west 15 to 20 mph.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC), says that the Lesser Antilles and especially the Windward Islands, should monitor this system closely.  Presently it's labeled as Invest 95L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 95 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for Atlantic Basin.

Models

The models are in agreement that the Invest will travel west toward the Windward Islands by the weekend or early part of next week. This is due to High Pressure across the Atlantic pushing it in that direction.

After that, once in the Caribbean Sea, the models fan out. This usually happens when they don't have a good handle on the system. Keep in mind these early model runs are providing an educated guess. Once the system forms, then the track projections will be more accurate.

The Invest is over 2 thousand miles away from our region so plenty of time to watch. If these models pan out, the system should stay in the Caribbean,

WORRY METER: For the Windward Islands, its moderate. Now is the time to review your preparedness plans as the system appears to be moving your way.  The rest of the region should keep monitoring.

INVEST 94L

Satellite View

This is a broad area of low pressure approaching parts of Central America. It has a 30% chance for organization over the next few days as it moves west. A recon plane is on stand-by Friday if needed. Even without development it could drop plenty of rain across the region leading to flooding concerns.

Models

The possible tracks suggest a movement toward the Yucatan Peninsula, then into the SW Gulf, and finally venturing across the same area that Alberto made landfall.

We'll be monitoring.

NOAA's 2024 Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) makes public its seasonal projections for the upcoming tropical season.

SATELLITE VIEW OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN

The forecast is alarming. NOAA suggests we could see  17 to 25 Named Systems, with 8 - 13 possibly becoming hurricanes, and out of that number  4 - 7  may develop into Major Hurricanes with category 3 winds, or those over 111 mph. 

Compare that with the average of 14, 7, & 3, and we could be in for a hectic summer and fall.  A reminder, this outlook can't tell us where and when a system will make landfall. It's just a guide as to how active a season might be.

2024 SEASONAL PROJECTIONS

The thinking behind the high forecast numbers is due to a variety of factors. The main ones being very hot water across the Atlantic Basin, and the emergence of La Niña.  

SIZZLING OCEAN WATER

A storm needs a minimum 80° of water temp in order to grow, less than that and systems will not develop. Presently, readings across much of the Tropical Atlantic Basin are very warm, thus providing the fuel hurricanes need to develop and intensify

The next Main Ingredient will be the emergence of La Niña, across the Eastern Pacific Ocean. 

• This is a cooling of the equatorial waters that not only impact marine currents, but atmospheric ones as well. 
• It's the opposite of El Niño which is a warming of the same waters.  
• While El Niño helps to keep systems in check in their developmental process, La Niña provides a more favorable environment for them to grow.  

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO for short) forecast, suggests El Niño waning thru June & July and La Niña emerging by July, August, and September. Unfortunately it will be near maximum intensity at the peak of hurricane season.

The graph above is set in three month intervals, with the first column showing AMJ, or April, May and June and the next batch MJJ, May, June, July and so on.

AN AREA TO WATCH

As of Thursday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area of clouds and rain around the Eastern Coast of Cuba, marked by the yellow X.  It's a trough, or a stretched out area of low pressure.

Once it moves into the yellow area on the map, it may develop. 

• NHC is giving it a very low chance for organization at the moment, at just 10% over a period of 7 days.
• If it were to develop any further, it should be a concern for marine interests.

This is a great reminder that we are about to enter the mean season. Let's work together to make sure we are ready for whatever Mother Nature sends our way.

WSVN will air a hurricane preparedness special, "Surviving a Storm", Friday May 31st, at 7 pm. It's full of great information to help you get ready in case of a threat.  This is a, "must watch"  for all. Specially our new arrivals to Florida and of course, a refresher for us hurricane battered veterans. 

 

Please stay with us over the next 6 months. Hurricane season runs June to November.  

The entire 7Weather Staff is dedicated to keeping you safe and informed. Please follow us on-air, on-line, and through my Phil Factor Updates.

Now is the time to prepare and get your storm survival plans ready.

We'll be watching

 

CSU Hurricane Season 2024 Outlook

Colorado State University (CSU) , issues the hurricane forecast for the 2024 season.

They are calling for what may turn out to be a very active year, forecasting 23 named system, out of which 11 could turn into hurricanes, and out of that number, 5 could reach major status. Those are systems with winds over 111 mph. The average season sees around, 14, 7 and 3.  Last year  the Atlantic basin spawned 20, 7, and 3. 

What about direct impacts?

CSU suggests the following:

1) Entire U.S. coastline – 62% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) – 34% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville – 42% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%

Why the high numbers?

There are varied ingredients for the possibility of an above average season. The two most important are the temp of the ocean water and the emergence of La Niña.

In order for storms to form, ocean water should be at 80 degrees or higher.  Look at all the red over the Atlantic, temps here are off the charts. This is the area where storms tend to organize the most.

There should be enough fuel here to brew and intensify systems.

The second most important ingredient is the return of La Nińa. This is a cooling of the Equatorial Waters of the Pacific Oceans. It not only impacts marine currents, but atmospheric ones as well.  This will impact the upper winds in the Atlantic and provide a better environment for storm growth.

With these two ingredients present, CSU is forecasting an above average year. Remember, not one single forecast will tell you where and when we will see a direct strike. 

Now is the time to prepare for a season that lasts 6 month. Build up your hurricane kit little by little.

From now through the start of June, there will be many other institutions issuing their own forecasts. NOAA will issue their official outlook at the end of May.

Of course my pledge to you, as well as the entire 7Weather team,  is to keep you informed and help guide you through any threat.

I'll be watching.

Lee Latest

Hurricane Lee is poised to become a monster major storm later on Thursday.  As of 11 am, it is a category 2 with 105 mph winds.  It has a classic hurricane feature with good feeder banding and a visible eye.

It should stay very strong over the next 5 days

Thee National Hurricane Center (NHC) says it will continue to grow into a category 5 with 160 mph winds by Saturday.

• Per NHC: As stated above, Rapid Intensification (RI) is occuring, and will likely continue today.
• The question doesn't appear to be if RI continues, but rather how strong Lee will get, and how quickly will it get there. 
• Many of the models are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond rates normally seen with model forecasts. 
• Both HAFS models forecast Lee to exceed 150 kt within the next 2 days, and even HCCA brings the hurricane above the category 5 threshold.

Where is it?

The system is just under 1000 miles away from the Leeward Islands and roughly 2000 miles away from South Florida. Plenty of time for monitoring but not too much for the Turks & Caicos and SE Bahamas. They should closely monitor the storm.

Future Track?

NHC says: Confidence continues to increase

that Lee will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, though

swells associated with Lee will affect the islands starting

tomorrow. By the end of the forecast, the uncertainty is a little

higher, with the hurricane models (HAFS, HWRF) generally being

farther south than the global models. Very small changes were made

to the NHC track forecast, which is between the HCCA and simple

consensus aids.

Models

Models suggest a front will dive out the US and block the system from reaching land forcing it to turn north. However Bermuda will have to stay on top of it for a possible impact.

Bottom Line

As of this moment the worry meter for South Florida is low. Models are steadfast the system will eventually stop and move north away from the region.  

Until I see that front moving offshore and the turn reflected in the official forecast cone, I will continue to monitor it closely and so should you. 

The peak of hurricane season is September 10th. We should all be ready for whatever Mother Nature throws our way.

 

Lee Looms Large

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring the progress of what should eventually become a Monster Category 4 Hurricane by the name of Lee.

The satellite imagery shows a system that is well organized on its way on becoming a major hurricane by the weekend. Winds could surpass 140 mph.

Forecast Cone

High pressure to Lee's north will be the main driver pushing Lee WNW in the days ahead.  This will allow it to travel over warm waters in the mid to upper 80s. Anything above 80 degrees is the kind of jet fuel Lee needs for rapid intensification.

One key factor in determining how strong it will be down the road is the ring of clouds, heavy rain and gusty winds around the eye known as the eye wall. This ring tends to get replaced every so often and causes wind speeds to fluctuate. This may play a major roll over the weekend and into early next week.

Long term Forecast

Long range forecast will be a challenge.  

• By Monday, models suggest high pressure still pushing it west while a front moves off the nation's midsection blocking the system offshore. 
• This should allow Lee to skip the Bahamas and Florida. 
• The hurricane will look for the gap between the two and move north. 
• Many things will be at play here. Will the high keep moving west? Will the front arrive in time? Any of these could alter the path. 
• We should all keep tabs on Lee until we get a better handle on its future long range track.

NHC Headlines

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Saturday and

could bring impacts to the northern Leeward Islands this weekend.

While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of

these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the

progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast.

2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the

Lesser Antilles on Friday.  These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

There is plenty of time to watch this system. Its roughly a week away from being near the SE Bahamas.  

Lets take the time to review our hurricane plans and supplies.

We'll keep you posted