Lee Latest

Hurricane Lee is poised to become a monster major storm later on Thursday.  As of 11 am, it is a category 2 with 105 mph winds.  It has a classic hurricane feature with good feeder banding and a visible eye.

It should stay very strong over the next 5 days

Thee National Hurricane Center (NHC) says it will continue to grow into a category 5 with 160 mph winds by Saturday.

• Per NHC: As stated above, Rapid Intensification (RI) is occuring, and will likely continue today.
• The question doesn't appear to be if RI continues, but rather how strong Lee will get, and how quickly will it get there. 
• Many of the models are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond rates normally seen with model forecasts. 
• Both HAFS models forecast Lee to exceed 150 kt within the next 2 days, and even HCCA brings the hurricane above the category 5 threshold.

Where is it?

The system is just under 1000 miles away from the Leeward Islands and roughly 2000 miles away from South Florida. Plenty of time for monitoring but not too much for the Turks & Caicos and SE Bahamas. They should closely monitor the storm.

Future Track?

NHC says: Confidence continues to increase

that Lee will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, though

swells associated with Lee will affect the islands starting

tomorrow. By the end of the forecast, the uncertainty is a little

higher, with the hurricane models (HAFS, HWRF) generally being

farther south than the global models. Very small changes were made

to the NHC track forecast, which is between the HCCA and simple

consensus aids.

Models

Models suggest a front will dive out the US and block the system from reaching land forcing it to turn north. However Bermuda will have to stay on top of it for a possible impact.

Bottom Line

As of this moment the worry meter for South Florida is low. Models are steadfast the system will eventually stop and move north away from the region.  

Until I see that front moving offshore and the turn reflected in the official forecast cone, I will continue to monitor it closely and so should you. 

The peak of hurricane season is September 10th. We should all be ready for whatever Mother Nature throws our way.

 

Lee Looms Large

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring the progress of what should eventually become a Monster Category 4 Hurricane by the name of Lee.

The satellite imagery shows a system that is well organized on its way on becoming a major hurricane by the weekend. Winds could surpass 140 mph.

Forecast Cone

High pressure to Lee's north will be the main driver pushing Lee WNW in the days ahead.  This will allow it to travel over warm waters in the mid to upper 80s. Anything above 80 degrees is the kind of jet fuel Lee needs for rapid intensification.

One key factor in determining how strong it will be down the road is the ring of clouds, heavy rain and gusty winds around the eye known as the eye wall. This ring tends to get replaced every so often and causes wind speeds to fluctuate. This may play a major roll over the weekend and into early next week.

Long term Forecast

Long range forecast will be a challenge.  

• By Monday, models suggest high pressure still pushing it west while a front moves off the nation's midsection blocking the system offshore. 
• This should allow Lee to skip the Bahamas and Florida. 
• The hurricane will look for the gap between the two and move north. 
• Many things will be at play here. Will the high keep moving west? Will the front arrive in time? Any of these could alter the path. 
• We should all keep tabs on Lee until we get a better handle on its future long range track.

NHC Headlines

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Saturday and

could bring impacts to the northern Leeward Islands this weekend.

While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of

these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the

progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast.

2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the

Lesser Antilles on Friday.  These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

There is plenty of time to watch this system. Its roughly a week away from being near the SE Bahamas.  

Lets take the time to review our hurricane plans and supplies.

We'll keep you posted