The satellite imagery shows a system that is well organized on its way on becoming a major hurricane by the weekend. Winds could surpass 140 mph.
Forecast Cone
High pressure to Lee's north will be the main driver pushing Lee WNW in the days ahead. This will allow it to travel over warm waters in the mid to upper 80s. Anything above 80 degrees is the kind of jet fuel Lee needs for rapid intensification.
One key factor in determining how strong it will be down the road is the ring of clouds, heavy rain and gusty winds around the eye known as the eye wall. This ring tends to get replaced every so often and causes wind speeds to fluctuate. This may play a major roll over the weekend and into early next week.
Long term Forecast
Long range forecast will be a challenge.
- By Monday, models suggest high pressure still pushing it west while a front moves off the nation's midsection blocking the system offshore.
- This should allow Lee to skip the Bahamas and Florida.
- The hurricane will look for the gap between the two and move north.
- Many things will be at play here. Will the high keep moving west? Will the front arrive in time? Any of these could alter the path.
- We should all keep tabs on Lee until we get a better handle on its future long range track.
NHC Headlines
1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Saturday and
could bring impacts to the northern Leeward Islands this weekend.
While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of
these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the
progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast.
2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
There is plenty of time to watch this system. Its roughly a week away from being near the SE Bahamas.
Lets take the time to review our hurricane plans and supplies.
We'll keep you posted
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