Florida Storm Threat

Get ready for a week of anxiety, specially for the West Coast of Florida. Impacts however, may be felt across the entire state. This is what we are covering.

HEADLINES

• Tropical Wave off the West Coast of Africa with a very low chance for development. Very far away with plenty of time to monitor.
• Invest92L in the middle of the Atlantic with a zero percent chance for growth as of sunday morning. 
• Hurricane Franklin is getting stronger. Should remain a powerful marine hurricane.
• BRAND NEW - TD 10 is now Tropical storm Idalia. It is practically spinning on its axis. Models suggest that will change. Expected to Strengthen Into a Hurricane Over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico in a Couple of Days. 

Tropical Storm Idalia

The system has been doing a slow clockwise trek as steering winds remain weak.

Why the crawl?

On this Mexican Weather office surface map above,  you will notice an "A", along the USA/MEX border. This is high pressure at the surface.

In the Upper Levels...

A bit hard to see, but once you find the Yucatan Peninsula, you'll spot an area of clouds. 

• The arrows flow counterclockwise, this is Idalia 
• In the Gulf of Mexico, you'll see the opposite spin, this is high pressure in the Upper Levels. This is helping to keep the system from intensifying now. 
• Both highs have also trapped Idalia not allowing it to move much and it's the cause of the slow movement. This will change.

Satellite

As of Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says:

• The overall cloud pattern has not become significantly better organized.  
• The small center is partially exposed on GOES-16 visible imagery
• Convective banding features are still not very well defined. Most of the rain is along the Yucatan Coast and Western Cuba 

Where may it go?

Steering currents should remain light until Monday evening. By then, high pressure over Florida will start to move East, while a front enters the Eastern US.  This creates a small road in the atmosphere between both features. This atmospheric alleyway allows Idalia to start making a move NNE.  When and how fast that turn will happen, depends on how quickly the front and the high move away.

72 Hour Forecast Map

The map suggests that by the middle of next week we could have Hurricane Idalia just west of Tampa. This is when it will turn even more towards Florida. 

How Strong?

 Reading left to right, you will notice the models indicating stronger winds with most topping off around tropical storm intensity. A few take into account how hot the Gulf waters are, and push the intensity into category 1 status. A couple take it into cat 2 strength.

Florida Impacts

NOAA says:

• The storm is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico 
• There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge, flooding from heavy rainfall, and hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday.  
• Storm surge and hurricane watches may be required for portions of the Gulf coast of Florida later this Sunday.

South Florida Impacts

The closest the system may get to South Florida is from Tuesday thru Wednesday. IF THE FORECAST PANS OUT, the worst will remain away from Broward, Miami-Dade and the Keys. Rain however, will be the trickiest to forecast.  Models suggest 2 - 2.3 inch range could come down. All depends on the  exact placement of the storm as it moves near us. 

The rain forecast keeps the big downpours offshore and into the Big Bend. 

Flood risk will be highest along the same area of heaviest rainfall. So FL is in the low risk area.

REMINDER

The atmosphere is in constant flux. Forecasts will evolve just as systems evolve. Any small jog west or east will change what we get. While no direct impact is slated for South Florida, check back from time to time for changes.

We'll keep watching.