The Tropics are on Overdrive

Many tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin Sunday, and one rare hurricane in the Eastern Pacific.

Let's start with Hilary, a rare tropical system that should impact Southern California and parts of the desert Southwest Sunday night and Monday.

Hurricane Hilary

The threat triggered California’s first ever tropical storm warning extending from the state’s southern border to just north of Los Angeles. 

Hilary is also forecast to be “the wettest tropical cyclone in state history,” according to the California governor’s office.

This is the most telling statement from NHC regarding Hillary.

"The potentially historic amount of rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening to locally catastrophic flash, urban, and arroyo flooding including landslides, mudslides, and debris flows through early Monday morning. Localized flooding impacts, some significant, are also expected across northern portions of the Intermountain West."

Data from NHC: 

• Hilary is forecast produce storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts up to 10 inches are expected across portions of southern California and  southern Nevada leading to dangerous to catastrophic flooding.
• Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is forecast
• Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through Tuesday morning, resulting in localized, some significant, flash flooding.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic Basin.

There are 5 systems being watched by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Two already developed, they are Tropical storm Emily and Tropical Depression # 6.

Tropical Storm Emily was named at 11 am.  

This is the latest from NHC:

• Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h)
• This motion is expected to continue for the next several days. 
• Satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
• Little change in strength forecast Sunday followed by gradual weakening. 
• Emily is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday. 
• Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center.
• ONLY A WORRY FOR Shipping lanes

Tropical Depression 6

Such a beautiful satellite image. You can see the center spin clearly with most of the cloud cover on the eastern side. This is where you will find most of the rain. Notice the line of clouds moving in the opposite direction both to the west and north of TD 6. These are strong upper level winds that will continue to take a toll on the system. 

TD 6 may only last thru Monday as those upper winds known as shear should shred it apart. 

Invest 90L

These are the rain chances from a possible tropical system for Puerto Rico.

Through Tuesday, high rain chances remain for the Island as well as Central & Northernmost Leeward Islands.

Good overnight to morning loop over the Eastern Caribbean Sea. This is invest 90L, now a broad area of low pressure. You can see that it already has a cyclonic spin to it.

Per NHC:

• Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure over the far eastern  Caribbean Sea. 
• Additional development of this system is expected
• A tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph 
• By midweek it should start turning northward and moving into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days. 
• Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. 
• A NOAA Hurricane Reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate the system later Sunday. 

Where is it headed?

If it does organize, most models take the center mostly over Dominican Republic & Haiti.  This is because high pressure over the Atlantic pushing it west will split and create a small avenue for the system to take north. Rain is still the issue.

Wave off Africa

This satellite loop shows Emily spinning over the upper left part of the imagery while picking up the very healthy wave off Africa.

NHC says:

• A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave. 
• Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
• A tropical depression could form later this week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
• Plenty of time to watch

Tropical Wave in Gulf

The on & off downpours South Florida has seen this weekend are due to a wave that has now moved into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. It has been deemed Invest91L

NHC Says:

• The wave is expected to lead to the formation of a broad area of low pressure early this week. 
• Some slow development of this system could occur thereafter as it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph
• A tropical depression could form as it approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by Tuesday.

These are the very early model runs:

I can't say it enough, this is a prime reminder we are in hurricane season and we should all be prepared in case Mother Nature sends something our way. We'll be watching.