Possible Tropical Activity near Florida

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a spin just off the NE Florida coast for possible development.

The actual spin, now area of low pressure, is roughy 100 miles East of Jacksonville, running alongside a decaying front. 

It has been deemed Invest 92L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVESTigate further, 92 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for the Atlantic basin.

CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT

As of Friday morning, atmospheric conditions may support development of a depression late in the day or this weekend... that is, if the center spin can stay over water.  

• There's a 60% chance for organization between now and the next 7 days. 
• If it moves inland , then formation chances will drop.
• A Recon mission is scheduled for later in the day to get a better handle on this system.

WHERE MAY IT GO?

Early model runs are not in agreement. While most show a system along the East Coast on a northward track, others keep it hovering over the SE. Heavy rain potential will be present.

SOUTH FL IMPACTS?

Even if Invest 92L does not turn tropical, the counterclockwise circulation will keep drawing moisture from the Gulf Waters leaving us rather soggy thru the weekend.

Per @NWSMiami

"Expect continuing 

rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with global models depicting 

widespread rain across SoFlo. High-res/CAMs keep rainfall totals in 

the 2-3" range through the weekend. Periods of heavy rain, 

especially with training of cells or terrain anchoring, may 

result in localized urban flooding. LPMM estimates show possible 

isolated accumulation values of up to 5 inches with the heaviest 

or long- lasting downpours. A few overnight showers or isolated 

thunderstorms can't be ruled out." 

The entire 7Weather team will keep you updated on this feature.  Regardless of the rain, we hope you have a safe and dry, 4th of July.

4th of July may brew Tropical Activity

The National Hurricane Center (NHC), is monitoring parts of Florida for possible tropical development over the next 7 days.

They suggest we could see an area of low pressure popping up somewhere inside the yellow area. They're giving that possibility a 40% chance of happening, up from 20% Monday.

A weak front will enter Northern Florida by the end of the week, and stall over the region. This usually allows for some spin-ups to happen in the atmosphere. These spins can then turn tropical.

MODELS

🔴 The ECMWF has an area of low pressure emerging near Florida's Big Bend on the fourth. The outlook suggests moisture swinging toward South Florida and allowing downpours to develop.

🔴 THE GFS also places a low near the same area, and here too calling for rain spreading into south Florida.

So far models are not providing any real tangible tracks for whatever may develop, if anything.

LONG RANGE

Beyond the 7 day outlook, NOAA's forecast keeps us on the quiet side of things thru the middle of the month.

CLIMATOLOGY

History shows us that most systems developing in July, tend to do so in the highlighted areas, with the green zone being the most active.

Since a low could develop over a favored site, we'll keep watching for additional observations and analyses to help us in determining what the forecast may be. For the moment, it appears as only summer rain for the Holiday weekend.

The worry meter remains low for the NW Bahamas, South Florida, and Cuba.

First Florida Tropical Concern for 2025?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC), is eyeing the possibility of some sort of tropical development possibly by the upcoming weekend.

WHERE MAY A SYSTEM DEVELOP?

NHC suggests that over the next 7 days, low pressure may develop inside the yellow area. They are giving this possibility, a low 20% probability of actually forming.

WHY?

This is a forecast map valid on Saturday July 5th. It shows a front moving into north Florida and stalling. 

When this happens, it usually has an area of low pressure developing in the Gulf Waters. 

If that does take place, then there may be a chance for some growth of the low.

SOUTH FLORIDA IMPACTS?

Uncertainty in the long term forecast stems from the possibility of a disturbance developing sometime later this week. Some of the deterministic guidance hints at an area of low pressure potentially forming somewhere along the stalled frontal boundary (could be over the Gulf waters, or over the Panhandle, or even over the Gulf Stream waters). 

However, the lack of model consensus or a consistent trend continues to complicate the forecast. If a system does develop, it could potentially help enhance the aforementioned chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region, and elevate the potential for severe and flooding impacts.

This scenario will need to be monitored closely in the coming days. COURTESY NWSMiami

RAIN CHANCES

Over the next 7 days, typical rain probabilities for South Florida range between 50% & 60%. Models suggest this is where we will be thru Friday. Long range into next weekend, keeps the chances on the low end of normal. 

We will have to monitor that as it may change depending on where the low actually develops, if at all.

NO tropical concerns for SE Florida, the Bahamas & Cuba at this moment. The worry meter is low.

If there is a change in the models, the entire 7Weather staff will keep you updated. This is a good reminder that we are hurricane season and we should be prepared in case Mother Nature spins anything our way.

Official NOAA 2025 Seasonal Forecast

NOAA'S 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast

The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) made public their projections on Thursday, as to how active this coming season may be.

They're calling for:

• 13 to 19 Named systems, out of which-
• 6 to 10, could turn into hurricanes, and out of this number -
• 3 to 5 may be stronger than a category 3

What are the factors for this? El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperatures (SST), and atmospheric conditions. 

Warmer water temperatures. Tropical systems need 80 degrees of water temps to develop. The models suggest higher ocean temps this season.

Strong Upper winds known as shear, will NOT be that plentiful. These winds can keep storms from developing or growing stronger

El Niño, which is an above average warming of the Pacific Ocean and helps keep the atmosphere hostile to hurricanes, will NOT be present

Additional moisture out of Africa could provide another ingredient for systems to form

As always follow myself, and the entire weather team On-Air and on-line for the latest happenings in the Tropics.

Next Tropical System

Could there be another system developing?  Yes. Could there be a tax hike sometime? Yes 

Will someone win the Lotto? Yes

But we don't know when.

Lets get over Milton before we worry about something, maybe, somewhere developing in the Tropics.

Many social media folks are spewing information with a kernel of truth and blow it out of proportion.

I am being asked constantly about Nadine, where is it? Is it coming. The answers are NO, there is no Nadine (there could be), and NO, we don't know where it will go if indeed it is born.  

So lets take a look at the OFFICIAL nuggets of information available.

This morning The National Hurricane Center issued its forecast for the possibility of another system brewing.

7 Day Odds

• The map shows the two current systems in the Tropics; Milton finally leaving Florida, Leslie only a worry for the shipping lanes, and a Tropical Wave out of Africa with a 20% chance for becoming a named system, somewhere in the yellow area over a period of 7 days.
• Maybe something could organize there in a week or so

Now lets look at what many folks are browsing  on-line.  

The map above looks at the possibility of something organizing two weeks in advance.  

• The top panel shows a red dashed area indicating a 20% chance for development somewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
• The bottom panel keeps the probabilities the same entering the third week.

Think of how much uncertainty there was over the last few days with Milton. Where was it located? How strong was it? Where will it make landfall? And that was just the last 48 hours. 

Here we are looking ahead almost a month away? Lets take a deep breath and keep the stress level down.

Allow the folks impacted by Milton and Helene the opportunity to put their lives together again.

If Mother Nature does spin up another storm, then I'll be the first to let you know.  

For the moment, all you are seeing are extremely long-range odds. 

As always thank you for following me , and stay safe.

D-Day for Milton

Hurricane Milton is set to make landfall late tonight or early Thursday morning as a major system

Satellite Imagery

From the National Hurricane Center

An area of heavy rain is starting to spread across

portions of southwestern and west-central Florida out ahead of Milton.

Weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across

portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day.

Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone.

There is high confidence that Milton will remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida, and maintain hurricane status as it moves across the state.

Headlines from NWS

Hurricane Milton just SW of Florida is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast late Wednesday

Dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the SW Florida coast from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning

Damaging tropical storm force winds are also expected beginning Wednesday afternoon in SW Florida and spreading east across the peninsula through Thursday

Several tornadoes will be possible tonight through Thursday morning

Impacts

Miami-Dade & Broward

• Most of the heavy rain is now forecast to wrap around Milton and move north.  
• The FLOOD WATCH has bee canceled for your area 
• Tropical storm force winds will still be possible especially with any rain band that moves over our area 
• Tornadoes: We had tornado warnings overnight and may still see a few twisters through Thursday morning.

For the Keys:

• Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with frequent gusts around 40 mph from later today through tonight and into Thursday morning. 
• Key West International Airport reported a wind gust of 37 mph. 
• Storm surge saltwater flooding of 1 to 3 feet above ground level will be possible on the Gulf and Bayside of the Florida Keys from this afternoon through Thursday morning, and possibly into Thursday evening on the Bayside of the Upper Keys 
• Atlantic facing shorelines will continue to experience crashing waves and over-wash through today and into tonight, causing saltwater flooding in the adjacent neighborhoods. 
• A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys. 
• The potential for isolated tornadoes will continue across the Keys today and tonight.

Bahamas:

• Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday 
• Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini remain under a Tropical Storm Warning 
• This means you could see winds over 39 mph when/if a rain band moves over you 
• Seas will get rough specially once the system moves into the Atlantic

Stay safe

Tuesday Milton SE FL Impacts

Milton loses a bit of it's fury but remains a dangerous system. Per the National Hurricane Center, "Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida".

Satellite Loop

Big changes took place over night. The clear-eye from yesterday is now obscured by clouds. 

The system went through an eye wall replacement cycle . This causes the wind speeds to fluctuate.  Intensity will vary until it moves ashore. 

Presently the strongest winds extend out from the center 30 miles with tropical-storm-force winds fanning outward up to 105 miles.

Headlines 

• Milton has taken a small jog NE 
• Later today it should move more in that direction and by Wednesday, it's forecast to move a bit faster. 
• A front being pushed south, will drag Milton to Florida. This should take the center to west-central Florida by tomorrow night.  

Strong upper winds known as shear, will cause some more weakening but models suggest Milton will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state. 

More recon missions will be underway

SE Florida Impacts

• NEW - Tropical Storm Warning now in place for Broward & Miami Dade Counties
• This means that by Wednesday, 39+ mph are EXPECTED 
• These gusty winds will come and go. A rain band moves in with the 39+ mph winds. Once the band moves out, it's all quiet until the next one arrives. 
• Milton remains a compact hurricane 
• The wind field is forecast to grow in size as it approaches Florida and should double in size by the time it makes landfall.  
• Damaging winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. 
• Mainland South Florida may get 2 - 4+ additional inches of rain with some spots up to 8"
• The downpours will be intermittent. As the rain bands move over you'll get the wind and rain, then quiet until the next band
• Winds will increase across South Florida tomorrow with the strongest by nighttime 
• Tropical Storm Warning also in for the Keys 
• Milton`s outer bands will push rain in by Wednesday into the Keys, with forecast totals between 2" - 4", with some locations getting up to 7" 
• The outer bands could also spin up some tornadoes
• High water is possible up to 3'

For the NW Bahamas

You may get an occasional gust with some rough seas and the potential is there for some heavy rain. Once the system moves across into the Atlantic by Thursday, your winds could pick up as well with the seas getting rough.

Shutters

The ultimate decision is yours as you know your property best. I suggest to put them up when a hurricane watch is issued.

Mobile homes

It is never recommended to ride any tropical system during a storm. Tornadoes can cause damages, and strong gusts may impact the home. It's better er on the side of caution. 

Please stay safe