Next Tropical System

Could there be another system developing?  Yes. Could there be a tax hike sometime? Yes 

Will someone win the Lotto? Yes

But we don't know when.

Lets get over Milton before we worry about something, maybe, somewhere developing in the Tropics.

Many social media folks are spewing information with a kernel of truth and blow it out of proportion.

I am being asked constantly about Nadine, where is it? Is it coming. The answers are NO, there is no Nadine (there could be), and NO, we don't know where it will go if indeed it is born.  

So lets take a look at the OFFICIAL nuggets of information available.

This morning The National Hurricane Center issued its forecast for the possibility of another system brewing.

7 Day Odds

• The map shows the two current systems in the Tropics; Milton finally leaving Florida, Leslie only a worry for the shipping lanes, and a Tropical Wave out of Africa with a 20% chance for becoming a named system, somewhere in the yellow area over a period of 7 days.
• Maybe something could organize there in a week or so

Now lets look at what many folks are browsing  on-line.  

The map above looks at the possibility of something organizing two weeks in advance.  

• The top panel shows a red dashed area indicating a 20% chance for development somewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
• The bottom panel keeps the probabilities the same entering the third week.

Think of how much uncertainty there was over the last few days with Milton. Where was it located? How strong was it? Where will it make landfall? And that was just the last 48 hours. 

Here we are looking ahead almost a month away? Lets take a deep breath and keep the stress level down.

Allow the folks impacted by Milton and Helene the opportunity to put their lives together again.

If Mother Nature does spin up another storm, then I'll be the first to let you know.  

For the moment, all you are seeing are extremely long-range odds. 

As always thank you for following me , and stay safe.

D-Day for Milton

Hurricane Milton is set to make landfall late tonight or early Thursday morning as a major system

Satellite Imagery

From the National Hurricane Center

An area of heavy rain is starting to spread across

portions of southwestern and west-central Florida out ahead of Milton.

Weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across

portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day.

Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone.

There is high confidence that Milton will remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida, and maintain hurricane status as it moves across the state.

Headlines from NWS

Hurricane Milton just SW of Florida is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast late Wednesday

Dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the SW Florida coast from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning

Damaging tropical storm force winds are also expected beginning Wednesday afternoon in SW Florida and spreading east across the peninsula through Thursday

Several tornadoes will be possible tonight through Thursday morning

Impacts

Miami-Dade & Broward

• Most of the heavy rain is now forecast to wrap around Milton and move north.  
• The FLOOD WATCH has bee canceled for your area 
• Tropical storm force winds will still be possible especially with any rain band that moves over our area 
• Tornadoes: We had tornado warnings overnight and may still see a few twisters through Thursday morning.

For the Keys:

• Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with frequent gusts around 40 mph from later today through tonight and into Thursday morning. 
• Key West International Airport reported a wind gust of 37 mph. 
• Storm surge saltwater flooding of 1 to 3 feet above ground level will be possible on the Gulf and Bayside of the Florida Keys from this afternoon through Thursday morning, and possibly into Thursday evening on the Bayside of the Upper Keys 
• Atlantic facing shorelines will continue to experience crashing waves and over-wash through today and into tonight, causing saltwater flooding in the adjacent neighborhoods. 
• A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys. 
• The potential for isolated tornadoes will continue across the Keys today and tonight.

Bahamas:

• Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday 
• Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini remain under a Tropical Storm Warning 
• This means you could see winds over 39 mph when/if a rain band moves over you 
• Seas will get rough specially once the system moves into the Atlantic

Stay safe

Tuesday Milton SE FL Impacts

Milton loses a bit of it's fury but remains a dangerous system. Per the National Hurricane Center, "Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida".

Satellite Loop

Big changes took place over night. The clear-eye from yesterday is now obscured by clouds. 

The system went through an eye wall replacement cycle . This causes the wind speeds to fluctuate.  Intensity will vary until it moves ashore. 

Presently the strongest winds extend out from the center 30 miles with tropical-storm-force winds fanning outward up to 105 miles.

Headlines 

• Milton has taken a small jog NE 
• Later today it should move more in that direction and by Wednesday, it's forecast to move a bit faster. 
• A front being pushed south, will drag Milton to Florida. This should take the center to west-central Florida by tomorrow night.  

Strong upper winds known as shear, will cause some more weakening but models suggest Milton will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state. 

More recon missions will be underway

SE Florida Impacts

• NEW - Tropical Storm Warning now in place for Broward & Miami Dade Counties
• This means that by Wednesday, 39+ mph are EXPECTED 
• These gusty winds will come and go. A rain band moves in with the 39+ mph winds. Once the band moves out, it's all quiet until the next one arrives. 
• Milton remains a compact hurricane 
• The wind field is forecast to grow in size as it approaches Florida and should double in size by the time it makes landfall.  
• Damaging winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. 
• Mainland South Florida may get 2 - 4+ additional inches of rain with some spots up to 8"
• The downpours will be intermittent. As the rain bands move over you'll get the wind and rain, then quiet until the next band
• Winds will increase across South Florida tomorrow with the strongest by nighttime 
• Tropical Storm Warning also in for the Keys 
• Milton`s outer bands will push rain in by Wednesday into the Keys, with forecast totals between 2" - 4", with some locations getting up to 7" 
• The outer bands could also spin up some tornadoes
• High water is possible up to 3'

For the NW Bahamas

You may get an occasional gust with some rough seas and the potential is there for some heavy rain. Once the system moves across into the Atlantic by Thursday, your winds could pick up as well with the seas getting rough.

Shutters

The ultimate decision is yours as you know your property best. I suggest to put them up when a hurricane watch is issued.

Mobile homes

It is never recommended to ride any tropical system during a storm. Tornadoes can cause damages, and strong gusts may impact the home. It's better er on the side of caution. 

Please stay safe

 

Monday 8 am Milton Headlines

Dangerous Milton on way to Florida
Now a major hurricane with category 5 winds
Satellite Loop

The latest imagery shows that "buzz saw" look to the system. An eye has emerged and it is firing on all cylinders.

 Headlines

• Miami-Dade, Broward & the Keys are out of the cone. Impacts will be felt far outside of it

• The center has nudged a little southward over the past several hours

• Models suggest the approaching front that should steer Milton toward Florida should start its approach within the next 48 hours. This will force Milton to move east-southeastward to eastward for the next 36 h +/-

• Then it should start a turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed. 

• Models are in good agreement for a Florida impact 

• Thankfully it appears most models are in agreement that SE FLorida and the Keys will avoid a direct strike.

South Florida Watches & Warnings

All the areas highlighted in yellow are under a hurricane watch. This means hurricane force winds are possible over the area in 48 hours. This will probably be upgraded to a warning by tomorrow.

Areas in the light blue represent a tropical storm watch. This means tropical storm winds of 39+ mph are possible. Miami-Dade & Broward have no advisories. This may change as the system nears the west coast.

Impacts:

This graphic from the National Weather Service gives a preliminary overview of possible impacts. 

SE Florida will get some gusty winds from time to time as rain bands move through the area.
Notice the highlights under Wind and Flooding rains. They will impact all the cities of Miami-Dade & Broward Counties.

Even tropical storm winds can cause damages.

Impacts for the Keys

• Winds start increasing throughout the area Tuesday night, peaking sometime on Wednesday/Wednesday evening, before diminishing slowly heading into Thursday.

• Coastal flooding, especially on the Bayside/Gulfside of the Island Chain,

• High potential for sustained tropical storm force winds, thundery squalls with localized wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph Tuesday night through Wednesday

• Flooding rainfall with total amounts through Wednesday night most likely in the 5 to 10 inch range with isolated locations seeing as much as 15 inches. 

• A significant portion of the rainfall will be well in advance of Milton`s closest approach.

Hoping for the best

Milton 11 pm InfoHurricane Milton

Hurricane Milton continues to intensify.

• It looks very healthy on satellite imagery 
• Its traveling over very warm waters which will provide the fuel to grow stronger 
• Nothing in its atmospheric path presently to weaken it
• Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Florida by midweek. 
• Please do not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton.

Per NHC:

• Too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts 
• There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of Florida beginning early Wednesday
• Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued early Monday

What to look for:

There is a front (Blue line with triangles) moving South. By Wednesday it should be across Northern Florida. If it moves too fast, it will push the system farther south. If too slow, Milton will jog northward. As of this update it seems that Milton should directly impact the west coast. This may change so please stay informed.

SE Florida will still feel impacts:

Chances for Tropical Storm Winds (39+ mph)

Ft. Lauderdale 44 %

Miami 23%

Slightly stronger west of I-95

Marathon 36%

Key West 38%

Chances for Hurricane Force Winds (Over 74 mph)

Ft. Lauderdale 5 %

Miami 2%

Slightly stronger west of I-95

Marathon 3%

Key West 4%

Rain 

• Localized amounts of up to 6+ inches possible. A Flood
• Watch is in effect beginning late Sunday morning
• It is important to note that the next round of rain is not directly associated with Tropical Storm Milton. 
• Any rain from Milton will happen later in the work week.

For the Keys:

Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. 

This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, street flooding 

We can also expect storm surge to be significant to some degree, but it is still difficult to estimate the exact surge heights. 

Even without the specific details, we do know that we have a few days of wet and messy weather to get through together.

Shutters:

If and when a hurricane WATCH is issued, that would be the time to put them up.

Please keep in mind that the atmosphere is ever changing and there are many factors at play. Stay informed and stay safe.

5 pm Hurricane Milton Update

An agonizing two days await us

Local Forecast Cone

• The close up cone suggests the southern extent of the forecast track has nudged northward.
• Please don't read too much into this. It gives us an idea of where the eye or center of the storm may be. Mother nature does not recognize man-made boundaries on a map. The atmosphere is ever changing and so will the cone placement and intensity Milton is getting stronger and will continue to get stronger. 
• Winds are now up to 85 mph on its way to 145 mph in 48 hours. That's a major cat 4 out 5 levels. 
• After that, it is forecast to weaken a bit as it nears Florida, but once this happens, models suggest Milton will grow in size. This means many more areas may feel its wrath.
• As we learned from Helene, many areas outside the cone will be impacted in one way or another.

The cone and intensity will fluctuate until it finally makes landfall so please keep monitoring.

Now for our possible impacts:

Miami Dade & Broward All Cities:

Tropical Storm Force Winds (39 mph and above)

Miami 26% 

Ft. Lauderdale 49%

Areas West of I-95 will see higher chances

Marathon 42%

Key West  48%

Hurricane Force winds (Over 74 mph)

Miami  2%

Ft. Lauderdale 6%

Marathon 4%

Key West 6%

Areas West of I-95 will see higher chances

Rain

• This will be a major player with 4 to 8 inches possible over saturated ground. 
• A Flood Watch is in place for South Florida. This means that any additional rainfall may lead to standing water over low lying areas.

When?

There is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards 

will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.

Shutters?

I recommend if and when a Hurricane Watch is issued, that would be the time to put them up. But you know your property best.

Please, this a huge and dangerous, possibly catastrophic hurricane in development. Impacts will be felt far away from wherever it makes landfall. Best to be prepared.

Hope for the best for all across Florida.

Milton Info

Milton is on its way to becoming a major hurricane as it aims for Florida.

From NWS Miami:

• Tropical Storm Milton over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to quickly intensify as it moves east and northeast, and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida peninsula mid-week
• Hurricane or tropical storm watches could be issued as early as late today for portions of Florida
• Heavy rainfall leading to possible flooding is expected across South Florida through much of this week. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area through Thursday morning
• Increasing risk of dangerous storm surge for portions of the Florida Gulf coast, and damaging wind impacts for portions of South Florida from Milton. 

Here are your headlines:

• The track may shift northward or southward. Why? A front heading south will dictate Milton's future path. If the front moves fast, then Milton gets nudged farther south. If it slows down... then it will jog northward. 
• Keep monitoring as the atmosphere is in constant flux. 
• This is why model runs come out many times a day. 
• NHC updates the forecast track a minimum of 4 times a day.

If nothing were to change with this system, what can we expect?

Keys: 

• All guidance points to south to southwesterly breezes in the Keys peaking near tropical storm force (39 mph w stronger gusts). 
• There will likely be a heightened risk of coastal flooding and fast moving squalls. 
• It is a bit too early to determine if watches or warnings will be required for the Keys. 

Miami Dade & Broward: ALL CITIES

• Heavy rainfall and flooding is expected across South Florida through this week. 
• A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area beginning late Sunday morning to Thursday morning.
• Increasing risk of dangerous storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the Florida peninsula
• It is too early to provide specifics on potential impact locations, but the general time frame of storm impacts in South Florida would be late Tuesday through Wednesday.
• All potential impacts are in play at this time with Milton (strong wind, significant storm surge, flooding rainfall, tornadoes). 

As of this moment, here are your chances of seeing tropical storm force winds:

• Miami 26%
• Ft. Lauderdale 46%
• All cities west of I-95 could see higher chances

Chances for hurricane force winds (74 mph and above)

• Miami 2%
• Ft. Lauderdale 6%
• All Cities west of I-95  - 5%

Rainfall will be wide spread with anywhere between 6 - 8". This will lead to flooding issues with already saturated grounds.

Please keep monitoring. Many things can & will change with this system which promises to grow stronger. 

 

Questions about shutters:

I recommend when and if Hurricane WATCHES go up for your area, to put them up. You know your property best and how long it may take to put them up.

Stay safe everyone