2023 Hurricane Season Forecast

NOAA Releases the forecast for the 2023 Hurricane Season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) alongside the National Hurricane Center (NHC) , issued their outlook on possible activity this season.

• They are calling for  12 to 17 named systems 
• Out of which   5 to 9 could become hurricanes 
• From that number maybe 1 to 4 could turn into major storms or those category three and above (Over 111 mph winds). 

Compare that with what is typical and we could see near average activity.

They say a few key factors will influence the forecast in the Atlantic Basin. They are:

• Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Warmer temps provide the necessary energy for tropical systems to intensify. If SSTs are above average it can create favorable conditions for hurricane formation and intensification. The minimum temp that systems need to develop is 80 degrees.    
• El Niño or La Niña events in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño is a warming of the waters that tends to suppress hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, which inhibits storm development. La Niña which is a cooling of the waters, can enhance hurricane activity by reducing wind shear and promoting a more favorable environment for tropical systems. This year an El Niño event is being forecast. 
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a cyclic weather pattern that can influence tropical activity on a global scale. When the MJO is in a phase that enhances convection and atmospheric instability, it can increase the likelihood of tropical storm development. 
• The strength and position of the Bermuda-Azores High, a semi-permanent high-pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean, can impact the tracks and steering currents of tropical storms. If the high-pressure system is stronger or situated further east than usual, it can steer hurricanes closer to land or prevent them from recurving away from populated areas.

While these are some of the key meteorological factors that will impact tropical activity during this year, it is important to note that forecasting hurricanes is a complex science, and other factors, such as wind patterns, atmospheric moisture, and upper-level dynamics, also contribute to the overall pattern. Continuous monitoring and research are crucial in improving hurricane predictions and enhancing preparedness efforts to minimize the potential impacts of these powerful storms.

Prepare now for a season that lasts 6 months. It only takes one storm. 

Present Activity

NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather offshore the Southeast Coast. It has a low chance for development. If it does organize it will do do so in the yellow area over the next 7 days. 

Even if it doesn't grow, it will dump plenty of rain across the Mid-Atlantic States. 

Across the Atlantic

There are also three Tropical Waves in the Atlantic, the only one with shower activity is the farthest one away in the Far Eastern Atlantic.

We'll keep Watching

NHC Watching Nearby Disturbance

An area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas has piqued the interest of the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

SATELLITE 

The latest imagery shows a nice comma-shaped pattern, north of the Bahamas with a counterclockwise spin. This is the area NHC is watching.  

Presently, it is causing a large area of showers and storms NE of the Bahamas and across the Mona Passage. It is also generating some strong winds, as well as moderate to rough seas, posing a concern for mariners. These conditions will remain in place through Wednesday.

OUTLOOK

The New 7 Day outlook from NHC suggests the area of disturbed weather is a broad area of low pressure. It is causing some rain and wind a few hundred miles NE of the Bahamas. 

By the end of the weekend or possibly Monday, the atmospheric conditions will be such that further development is not forecast.  NHC is giving it a very low chance for organization. If by some unforeseen situation it does get stronger, it may develop in the yellow area.  

    Formation Potential thru 48 hours    10%

  Formation Potential thru 7 Days     10%

This feature is forecast to move north and not have any impact with land areas. 

For South Florida and the Bahamas, our rains will be highly influenced by the Sea breeze carrying plenty of moisture. This is a typical Rainy Season Pattern. 

Tropical Outlooks Start

 May 15th is the start of Hurricane Season in the Eastern Pacific, and the beginning of outlooks for us.

The outlooks basically show an area the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is watching for POSSIBLE development. They provide where the area is located, and the zone where it might organize, along with its chances for doing just that. This year the outlook goes out to 7 days, up from 5 on 2022.

 

Here are the names for 2023, and how they are pronounced

This is what NHC is saying on this 1st Day of the Tropical Outlook issuance

The Tropical Weather Outlook is issued from May 15 through 
November 30 each year.  The issuance times of this product are 2 
AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT.  After the change to standard time 
in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST. 

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide 
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances 
of the Tropical Weather Outlook.  Special Tropical Weather Outlooks 
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular 
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

RAINY SEASON

It kicked off Monday and runs thru Mid October.