2023 Hurricane Season Forecast

NOAA Releases the forecast for the 2023 Hurricane Season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) alongside the National Hurricane Center (NHC) , issued their outlook on possible activity this season.

• They are calling for  12 to 17 named systems 
• Out of which   5 to 9 could become hurricanes 
• From that number maybe 1 to 4 could turn into major storms or those category three and above (Over 111 mph winds). 

Compare that with what is typical and we could see near average activity.

They say a few key factors will influence the forecast in the Atlantic Basin. They are:

• Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Warmer temps provide the necessary energy for tropical systems to intensify. If SSTs are above average it can create favorable conditions for hurricane formation and intensification. The minimum temp that systems need to develop is 80 degrees.    
• El Niño or La Niña events in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño is a warming of the waters that tends to suppress hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, which inhibits storm development. La Niña which is a cooling of the waters, can enhance hurricane activity by reducing wind shear and promoting a more favorable environment for tropical systems. This year an El Niño event is being forecast. 
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a cyclic weather pattern that can influence tropical activity on a global scale. When the MJO is in a phase that enhances convection and atmospheric instability, it can increase the likelihood of tropical storm development. 
• The strength and position of the Bermuda-Azores High, a semi-permanent high-pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean, can impact the tracks and steering currents of tropical storms. If the high-pressure system is stronger or situated further east than usual, it can steer hurricanes closer to land or prevent them from recurving away from populated areas.

While these are some of the key meteorological factors that will impact tropical activity during this year, it is important to note that forecasting hurricanes is a complex science, and other factors, such as wind patterns, atmospheric moisture, and upper-level dynamics, also contribute to the overall pattern. Continuous monitoring and research are crucial in improving hurricane predictions and enhancing preparedness efforts to minimize the potential impacts of these powerful storms.

Prepare now for a season that lasts 6 months. It only takes one storm. 

Present Activity

NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather offshore the Southeast Coast. It has a low chance for development. If it does organize it will do do so in the yellow area over the next 7 days. 

Even if it doesn't grow, it will dump plenty of rain across the Mid-Atlantic States. 

Across the Atlantic

There are also three Tropical Waves in the Atlantic, the only one with shower activity is the farthest one away in the Far Eastern Atlantic.

We'll keep Watching