The large scale satellite imagery shows a small, yet moisture laden wave, just off the West Coast of Africa. The clear skies in the middle of the loop is high pressure and that will keep steering the wave to the west around 15 - 20 mph.
Surface Map
Here you can see how strong and how far south the Atlantic High is positioned. This will be the key player in moving the wave west in the short term. In the long term, the high should weaken a bit and allow the wave to nudge a bit farther northwest.
Chances for development
NHC suggests that it has disorganized showers and storms and that over the next few days, once it enters the orange area, it will get a 50% chance for organization. This map represents the possibility of development over a period of 7 days. It could grow into a depression by then.
Tropical waves this far out in the Atlantic don't usually start firing up until later in the season.
Typical in the month of June is for formation to take place in the highlighted blue area. So if this wave does develop into a named system it would be uncommon. As per Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, "only 3 June systems have been named in the tropical Atlantic on record: Trinidad (1933), Ana (1979), and Bret (2017)."
Impacting the Wave
Two main factors are controlling the wave:
- Strong upper winds known as shear, should help keep it in check over the next few days. But once it clears that obstacle it could quickly ramp up.
- Warm waters in the Eastern Atlantic could help fuel and sustain it until it breaks free from the shear.
Plenty of time to watch this wave as it is almost 2 weeks away from nearing the U.S. NHC doesn't even have it as an INVEST area yet. Many things can happen but it's a good reminder we're in hurricane season. Take the time now while it's quiet to review your supplies and hurricane plans. We'll keep you posted.
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