Two Tropical Systems are being tracked. The national Hurricane Center (NHC) is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bret and also eyeing the potential for another system to develop.
Satellite View
This loop shows Bret spinning overnight and into Tuesday. Its appearance remains largely unchaged since Monday. Presently, Tropical Storm force winds extend out from the center up to 45 miles. For the moment there are NO watches or warnings in place.
NHC says Bret is still forecast to strengthen into a hurricane over the next couple of days. The Lesser Antilles should monitor this system closely.
Where is it going?
The system appears to be tracking just north of due west. High pressure is still the main driver in steering Bret.
By the end of the week, the system should run into shear, or strong upper winds, and start weakening.
At that time it should be near the islands.
This is the forecast challenge:
- A mid tropospheric trough over Florida, or an elongated area of low pressure in the mid levels of the atmosphere, will start to weaken the high steering Bret.
- Drier is also forecast to start moving in on the system which should also help in weakening it.
In days 3 thru 5 of the forecast track, the models fan out. One of the reasons for that may be they are not handling the intensity of Bret well. Different strengths...different outcomes.
Message from NHC:
Lesser Antilles near hurricane intensity on Thursday and Friday, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves.
After it moves across the Lesser Antilles, it should make its way into the Caribbean.
Direct message from NHC:
Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor
updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane plan in place.
Invest 93L
This is an area of clouds and rain a few hundred miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands.
Conditions are suggesting this wave could develop over the next few days. For the moment it will continue to travel west at 20 mph.
We'll be watching.
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