Depression this week?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a vigorous tropical wave that could become a depression or even a Storm sometime this coming week. If it becomes a storm it will be named "Bret".

Satellite Imagery

Notice the blob coming off Africa,  that is NOT the wave NHC is focused on. It is the swirl just to its left that has its attention. It is becoming better organized and atmospheric conditions appear favorable for further growth. It may turn into a full fledged tropical system soon.

Invest 92L

Here's the Sunday morning data:

• Location: Several hundred miles SW of Cape Verde Islands
• Lat/Lon: 9.7°N 31.9°W
• Maximum Winds: 28 mph  Gusts: None
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb. or 29.82"
• Movement: West 15 - 20 mph

It has a high chance of becoming a tropical system both in the short and long term per NHC. If it does organize, it will do so in the red area.

Models

There is plenty to look at this morning. A reminder as always, that until an actual center of circulation forms, the models are giving us their best tracks possible but not set in stone. Many things can influence a system.

HWRF Model

This particular model shows where the center of the system may be next week. Each line shows a different outcome. The upper right box suggests the system could be a strong one. The bottom right, indicates how low the pressure my be. The lower... the stronger.

HMON Model

This run suggests the center may be East of the Leeward Islands in about 5-7 days and possibly just as strong as indicated by the HWRF.

SPAGHETTI Models:

This takes most of the top models into consideration. The runs are split between an early turn to the north before the islands, or a straight path that may impact the Lesser Antilles and then travel into the Caribbean Sea. I suggest our neighbors to the South keep an eye on this system. 

EURO Model

It forecasts the system to be East of the Lesser Antilles by June 22nd. Notice the small green dot to the right of the islands...that would be the storm. 

GFS: American Model

It turns the system northward avoiding the islands completely. It also forecasts a stronger storm than the EURO.

Bottom Line

Worry Meter for the islands should be Low, BUT keep an eye on the system just in case it does not turn north. Check back every day for the latest to get you ready just in case. The meter may change.

Caribbean: Very Low as of this moment. Things may change if the storm does not shift north.

Florida & Bahamas: No worry now. Check back in case things change.

We'll be watching.