Depression or Storm is possible this weekend

The Caribbean may be facing the first tropical threat of the 2024 hurricane season. An area of clouds and rain in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean has a high chance for development and could be near the Windward Island either by the weekend or start of next week. 

Satellite

The latest loop shows more storms starting to develop. It's spinning a few hundred miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands. The system is looking better organized and is showing signs it may be on the verge of becoming a depression or a storm soon.

Chances for development have risen to 90% as it travels west 15 to 20 mph.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC), says that the Lesser Antilles and especially the Windward Islands, should monitor this system closely.  Presently it's labeled as Invest 95L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 95 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for Atlantic Basin.

Models

The models are in agreement that the Invest will travel west toward the Windward Islands by the weekend or early part of next week. This is due to High Pressure across the Atlantic pushing it in that direction.

After that, once in the Caribbean Sea, the models fan out. This usually happens when they don't have a good handle on the system. Keep in mind these early model runs are providing an educated guess. Once the system forms, then the track projections will be more accurate.

The Invest is over 2 thousand miles away from our region so plenty of time to watch. If these models pan out, the system should stay in the Caribbean,

WORRY METER: For the Windward Islands, its moderate. Now is the time to review your preparedness plans as the system appears to be moving your way.  The rest of the region should keep monitoring.

INVEST 94L

Satellite View

This is a broad area of low pressure approaching parts of Central America. It has a 30% chance for organization over the next few days as it moves west. A recon plane is on stand-by Friday if needed. Even without development it could drop plenty of rain across the region leading to flooding concerns.

Models

The possible tracks suggest a movement toward the Yucatan Peninsula, then into the SW Gulf, and finally venturing across the same area that Alberto made landfall.

We'll be monitoring.