Tracking TwoTwo Tropical Systems are

Two Tropical Systems are being tracked. The national Hurricane Center (NHC) is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bret and also eyeing the potential for another system to develop.

Satellite View

This loop shows Bret spinning overnight and into Tuesday.  Its appearance remains largely unchaged since Monday. Presently, Tropical Storm force winds extend out from the center up to 45 miles. For the moment there are NO watches or warnings in place.

NHC says Bret is still forecast to strengthen into a hurricane over the next couple of days. The Lesser Antilles should monitor this system closely.

Where is it going?

The system appears to be tracking just north of due west. High pressure is still the main driver in steering Bret.

By the end of the week, the system should run into shear, or strong upper winds, and start weakening.

At that time it should be near the islands.

This is the forecast challenge:

• A mid tropospheric trough over Florida, or an elongated area of low pressure in the mid levels of the atmosphere, will start to weaken the high steering Bret.
• Drier is also forecast to start moving in on the system which should also help in weakening it.

In days 3 thru 5 of the forecast track, the models fan out. One of the reasons for that may be they are not handling the intensity of Bret well. Different strengths...different outcomes.

Message from NHC:

Lesser Antilles near hurricane intensity on Thursday and Friday, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves.

After it moves across the Lesser Antilles, it should make its way into the Caribbean.

Direct message from NHC:

Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor

updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane plan in place.

Invest 93L

This is an area of clouds and rain a few hundred miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands.  

Conditions are suggesting this wave could develop over the next few days. For the moment it will continue to travel west at 20 mph.

We'll be watching.

Brand New Tropical Depression

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now tracking Tropical Depression three in the Central Atlantic. This is not the only action in the tropics.

Satellite

You can clearly see a center spin. The cloud bands are setting up the classic "tropical system" look. 

As it travels over warmer than usual waters, it is poised to gain strength. We will be monitoring if any shear, or strong upper winds, will lay in its path hopefully to weaken it.

Where is it?

• Location: Roughly 1400 miles East of the Southern Windward Islands. 
• Winds: As of this update- 35 mph
• Moving: W at 21 mph
• Pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80"

Where is it going?

The official forecast cone shows where the center of the system may be over the next 5 days. A reminder to our Caribbean neighbors that impacts from the system will be felt outside the cone so please plan accordingly.

Tropical Depression 3 is forecast to become Tropical storm Bret by Tuesday.  Per Dr. Phil Klotzbach of CSU, this would make the 2nd earliest calendar year formation of a tropical storm in the tropical Atlantic on record, trailing Bret (2017)- named on 6/19 at 18 UTC

Models

Here's the latest suite of spaghetti models. They're used to generate the forecast cone. While there appears to be a large spread as it nears the islands, more and more models are showing a direct path to the Lesser Antilles.

Worry Meter

Lesser Antilles: High. Possible heavy rain, rough surf, and gusty winds. As the system gets closer, it is forecast to turn into a hurricane. You should prepare now as needed. Follow your local authorities instructions.

Caribbean: Medium. Keep an eye on the depression. If it intensifies more, it will be feeding off very warm Caribbean Sea waters. This could increase the impacts from the storm. Stay alert prepare now.

Another area NHC is monitoring

This is right on the heels of tropical depression 3.  It has now been deemed Invest 93L.

Latest NHC Outlook says 

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the 

Cabo Verde Islands.  

Further development of this system is 

possible, and a tropical depression could form within the next few days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

It has a 40% chance for development in orange area over a period of 7 days.

We'll be watching

Depression this week?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a vigorous tropical wave that could become a depression or even a Storm sometime this coming week. If it becomes a storm it will be named "Bret".

Satellite Imagery

Notice the blob coming off Africa,  that is NOT the wave NHC is focused on. It is the swirl just to its left that has its attention. It is becoming better organized and atmospheric conditions appear favorable for further growth. It may turn into a full fledged tropical system soon.

Invest 92L

Here's the Sunday morning data:

• Location: Several hundred miles SW of Cape Verde Islands
• Lat/Lon: 9.7°N 31.9°W
• Maximum Winds: 28 mph  Gusts: None
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb. or 29.82"
• Movement: West 15 - 20 mph

It has a high chance of becoming a tropical system both in the short and long term per NHC. If it does organize, it will do so in the red area.

Models

There is plenty to look at this morning. A reminder as always, that until an actual center of circulation forms, the models are giving us their best tracks possible but not set in stone. Many things can influence a system.

HWRF Model

This particular model shows where the center of the system may be next week. Each line shows a different outcome. The upper right box suggests the system could be a strong one. The bottom right, indicates how low the pressure my be. The lower... the stronger.

HMON Model

This run suggests the center may be East of the Leeward Islands in about 5-7 days and possibly just as strong as indicated by the HWRF.

SPAGHETTI Models:

This takes most of the top models into consideration. The runs are split between an early turn to the north before the islands, or a straight path that may impact the Lesser Antilles and then travel into the Caribbean Sea. I suggest our neighbors to the South keep an eye on this system. 

EURO Model

It forecasts the system to be East of the Lesser Antilles by June 22nd. Notice the small green dot to the right of the islands...that would be the storm. 

GFS: American Model

It turns the system northward avoiding the islands completely. It also forecasts a stronger storm than the EURO.

Bottom Line

Worry Meter for the islands should be Low, BUT keep an eye on the system just in case it does not turn north. Check back every day for the latest to get you ready just in case. The meter may change.

Caribbean: Very Low as of this moment. Things may change if the storm does not shift north.

Florida & Bahamas: No worry now. Check back in case things change.

We'll be watching. 

INVEST 92L in Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center (NHC), has determined that the wave in the Far Eastern Atlantic, with a high chance for development, is now Invest 92L.  

Satellite Views

The wider image shows how far away the area is from South Florida. It is off the West Coast of Africa a mere 3,785 miles away. It would take roughly 2 weeks for this system to near the U.S. if it were to develop. 

The more close-up view shows a swirl taking place near the Cape Verde Islands. It doesn't have lots of thunderstorm activity but its full of disorganized showers.  It's moving west at a quick speed of around 15-20 mph.  

Typically we don't look at this area for development until late July or August but the waters in the Eastern Atlantic are very warm and it is this heat that can fuel tropical systems.

INVEST 92L

This is a term used by NHC to follow areas that may organize.  Invest stands for an area they would like to INVEST-igate further, 92 is a tracking number (the next one will be 93), and "L" stands for the Atlantic Basin.

Here's the morning data on the Invest:

• Location: Lon: 10.0°N Lat: 26.6°W
• Maximum Winds: 23 mph Gusts: N/A
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb or 29.88"

Chances for Development

Presently the wave is being impacted by strong upper level winds known as shear and that should help keep it weak. By next week that shear should relax and may allow for some growth. It could become a depression or a storm. NHC is giving it a 70% chance for development in the red shaded area over a period of 7 days.

Surface Map

The wave is being steered West by high pressure in the Atlantic. There is also another high next to the U.S. Southeast Coast. The system if it develops, will try to move into the weakness between the two high pressure systems.

Models

A reminder: Since nothings has organized, models are giving us a good but yet educated guess as to where the system may travel.

Spaghetti Models

Reflect where the center of the system may be. Impacts can extend far and wide away from the center.

The European Model

Courtesy Tropical TidBits

This run places what may be a depression or a weak storm East of the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday June 21st.

GFS Model

Courtesy Tropical TidBits

The American Model shows a stronger system north of the Islands by Sunday June 25th.

This is a great reminder we are in hurricane season and we should all be ready. Check out our "Weather or Not" latest podcast issue. It is your personal guide on preparedness that you can listen to at anytime and review as needed.

Of course your 7Weather team is present 24/7 on any tropical threat.

We'll be watching

Far Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave

A not too common sight in the Eastern Atlantic as a wave has captured the attention of the National Hurricane Center (NHC). 

The large scale satellite imagery shows a small, yet moisture laden wave, just off the West Coast of Africa.  The clear skies in the middle of the loop is high pressure and that will keep steering the wave to the west around 15 - 20 mph.

Surface Map

Here you can see how strong and how far south the Atlantic High is positioned. This will be the key player in moving the wave west in the short term. In the long term, the high should weaken a bit and allow the wave to nudge a bit farther northwest.

Chances for development

NHC suggests that it has disorganized showers and storms and that over the next few days, once it enters the orange area, it will get a 50% chance for organization. This map represents the possibility of development over a period of 7 days. It could grow into a depression by then.

Tropical waves this far out in the Atlantic don't usually start firing up until later in the season. 

Typical in the month of June is for formation to take place in the highlighted blue area. So if this wave does develop into a named system it would be uncommon.  As per Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, "only 3 June systems have been named in the tropical Atlantic on record: Trinidad (1933), Ana (1979), and Bret (2017)."

Impacting the Wave

Two main factors are controlling the wave:

• Strong upper winds known as shear, should help keep it in check over the next few days. But once it clears that obstacle it could quickly ramp up. 
• Warm waters in the Eastern Atlantic could help fuel and sustain it until it breaks free from the shear.

Plenty of time to watch this wave as it is almost 2 weeks away from nearing the U.S.  NHC doesn't even have it as an INVEST area yet. Many things can happen but it's a good reminder we're in hurricane season. Take the time now while it's quiet to review your supplies and hurricane plans. We'll keep you posted.