Milton Info

Milton is on its way to becoming a major hurricane as it aims for Florida.

From NWS Miami:

• Tropical Storm Milton over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to quickly intensify as it moves east and northeast, and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida peninsula mid-week
• Hurricane or tropical storm watches could be issued as early as late today for portions of Florida
• Heavy rainfall leading to possible flooding is expected across South Florida through much of this week. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area through Thursday morning
• Increasing risk of dangerous storm surge for portions of the Florida Gulf coast, and damaging wind impacts for portions of South Florida from Milton. 

Here are your headlines:

• The track may shift northward or southward. Why? A front heading south will dictate Milton's future path. If the front moves fast, then Milton gets nudged farther south. If it slows down... then it will jog northward. 
• Keep monitoring as the atmosphere is in constant flux. 
• This is why model runs come out many times a day. 
• NHC updates the forecast track a minimum of 4 times a day.

If nothing were to change with this system, what can we expect?

Keys: 

• All guidance points to south to southwesterly breezes in the Keys peaking near tropical storm force (39 mph w stronger gusts). 
• There will likely be a heightened risk of coastal flooding and fast moving squalls. 
• It is a bit too early to determine if watches or warnings will be required for the Keys. 

Miami Dade & Broward: ALL CITIES

• Heavy rainfall and flooding is expected across South Florida through this week. 
• A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area beginning late Sunday morning to Thursday morning.
• Increasing risk of dangerous storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the Florida peninsula
• It is too early to provide specifics on potential impact locations, but the general time frame of storm impacts in South Florida would be late Tuesday through Wednesday.
• All potential impacts are in play at this time with Milton (strong wind, significant storm surge, flooding rainfall, tornadoes). 

As of this moment, here are your chances of seeing tropical storm force winds:

• Miami 26%
• Ft. Lauderdale 46%
• All cities west of I-95 could see higher chances

Chances for hurricane force winds (74 mph and above)

• Miami 2%
• Ft. Lauderdale 6%
• All Cities west of I-95  - 5%

Rainfall will be wide spread with anywhere between 6 - 8". This will lead to flooding issues with already saturated grounds.

Please keep monitoring. Many things can & will change with this system which promises to grow stronger. 

 

Questions about shutters:

I recommend when and if Hurricane WATCHES go up for your area, to put them up. You know your property best and how long it may take to put them up.

Stay safe everyone

Milton in the Makings

The National Hurricane Center (NHC), is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Milton in the Western Gulf of Mexico. 

Satellite View

The loop has the images transitioning from nighttime into daytime. It shows us a nice cluster of clouds starting to take shape in the Western Gulf of Mexico.

The Latest on TD 14

Its forecast to slowly move eastward and continue intensifying. The Florida Keys, Mainland South Florida and the Bahamas should monitor carefully.

Where is it headed?

The latest track has the system becoming a hurricane by Monday. Then nearing South Florida as a cat 2 almost cat 3 by Wednesday morning. 

Intensity forecasts are very difficult and as we have seen lately, tropical system can intensify rather quickly. Please stay informed and check back often on-air and on-line.

Interesting to note - If the system tracks a bit farther north, it will be impacted by an approaching front and could keep it weak. If it slides south, then a stronger storm is possible. 

South Florida Impacts

Rain will be the biggest threat as of this moment. That may change depending on how strong it gets and tracks. The above graphic provides an idea of potential accumulations over a period of 7 days.

A flood watch is already in place for South Florida.

Forecasts show this heavy rain will lead to flooding concerns, even if the system does not develop. It will be a very wet week.

Heaviest of the rain may arrive from Sunday thru Wednesday. 

Please stay on top of the weather over the next few days. This forecast has a lot of uncertainty as there are many factors that could influence its track and strength.

We'll be watching.

Dangerous Beryl

A record setting hurricane is churning in the Central Atlantic aiming for the Windward Islands and beyond. It has intensified very quickly.

l

Beryl is now a Powerful category 4 hurricane. Extremely strong winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are forecast.

• When Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands, the highest risk of a core impact will be in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning.  
• Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands thru Monday. 

As of Sunday morning, it has now reached major hurricane status. Quick History update per CSU's Philip Klotzback.

Early morning- Beryl reaches Category 3 hurricane with max winds of 115 mph - the first June major hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on record. 3rd earliest Atlantic major hurricane on record, trailing Alma (6/8/1966) and Audrey (6/27/1957). 

Mid Morning- Beryl attains winds of 120 mph - the second strongest June hurricane on record.  

• Beryl trails only Hurricane Audrey (1957, 125 mph max winds). 

Early Afternoon- Beryl reaches category 4 intensity with 140 mph winds!

• This is the earliest calendar year Atlantic Category 4 hurricane on record.  Old Atlantic record for earliest Category 4 hurricane was Hurricane Dennis on July 8, 2005 

Recon Mission

At 11:35 Sunday morning -NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicated that Beryl had strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 130 mph (215 km/h) with stronger gusts.

Forecast Cone

The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the south of the previous run.

• Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands.  
• Strong Upper winds (Shear) should gradually increase when Beryl moves across the Caribbean Sea. It may weaken thereafter BUT  it is expected to remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days. 

Where to find the strongest winds

This forecast suggests the core of Beryl tracking across the Windward Islands Monday morning and then traveling over the
Caribbean Sea during the following days.  The purple swath is where those winds, 75 mph to Cat 3, (possibly 4 by then) will be registered. 

Areas along the Windward Islands may get up to a foot of rain, while in the Caribbean Sea, the downpours will taper off to 4 to 8 inches.

Two More Areas to Watch

Aside from Beryl, there is another area marked by the red "X", which has a 70% chance for developing over the exact same area Beryl currently resides.

Then in the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico,  a low has a 50% chance for growth. Even without development, it's forecast to drop plenty of rain there.

We'll be watching

Tropical Trio

Three Tropical Areas to watch as we head into the weekend. We could see the second named storm of the year and the first Tropical Threat for the caribbean.

What to Watch

1) Close to the Yucatan Peninsula, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is monitoring Invest 94 L. Invest stands for an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 94 is a tracking number and "L", stands for Atlantic Basin.   30% chance for development.

• This feature continues to generate showers and thunderstorms as it moves WNW at 15 mph. 
• Recon flight for today is scrubbed. 
• It should travel over land and into SW Gulf of Mexico for the first part of the weekend. 

2) Invest 95L - Low pressure roughly 1400 miles ESE of the 

Windward Islands is looking better defined.  Chances up to 100% for formation.

• Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization
• A depression or tropical storm could form as early as Friday afternoon.  
• It's moving W at 15 to 20 mph. 
• Land approach should be late weekend / early part of next week somewhere along the Lesser Antilles, more likely the Windward Islands.

3) A tropical wave a few hundred miles SSW of the Cape Verde Islands is showing some disorganized downpours 

• Slow development is possible next week as it moves W at 15 to 20 mph.

Invest 94L 

Satellite Loop

Even though chances for development are low at 30% over 7 days, it'll drop plenty of rain over parts of Central America, Cayman Islands, Cuba, & Yucatan. It may get a better chance for organization by Sunday in the SW Gulf of Mexico.

Invest 95L

Satellite Loop

The first Tropical Threat for the Caribbean. The Lesser Antilles should monitor closely as it could become an organized named system later on Friday or early Saturday.

Wave Action

While the center of the system is forecast to track into the Windward Islands, wave action will be felt as far north as the Leeward Islands by Sunday. As much as 8 foot seas there. Twelve feet along the center path.

Models

Keep in mind that until the system actually organizes, these forecast tracks are a good estimate and not set in stone. The projections are in agreement in the short term to cross over the Lesser Antilles and move into the Caribbean Sea. After that, they fan out which is typical of long range forecasts and also a sign there are too many variables and the models are not handling it well. Better outcomes once we have a good center fix.

Third in Line

Satellite Loop

This wave is the cluster of clouds and rain just off the West Coast of Africa. Should track south of Cape Verde.

Typically we don't see this much activity early in a season, but with plenty of climatic indicators suggesting an active year, we should all be reviewing our storm supplies and readiness.

We'll keep watching

** Some images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits **

Depression or Storm is possible this weekend

The Caribbean may be facing the first tropical threat of the 2024 hurricane season. An area of clouds and rain in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean has a high chance for development and could be near the Windward Island either by the weekend or start of next week. 

Satellite

The latest loop shows more storms starting to develop. It's spinning a few hundred miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands. The system is looking better organized and is showing signs it may be on the verge of becoming a depression or a storm soon.

Chances for development have risen to 90% as it travels west 15 to 20 mph.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC), says that the Lesser Antilles and especially the Windward Islands, should monitor this system closely.  Presently it's labeled as Invest 95L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 95 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for Atlantic Basin.

Models

The models are in agreement that the Invest will travel west toward the Windward Islands by the weekend or early part of next week. This is due to High Pressure across the Atlantic pushing it in that direction.

After that, once in the Caribbean Sea, the models fan out. This usually happens when they don't have a good handle on the system. Keep in mind these early model runs are providing an educated guess. Once the system forms, then the track projections will be more accurate.

The Invest is over 2 thousand miles away from our region so plenty of time to watch. If these models pan out, the system should stay in the Caribbean,

WORRY METER: For the Windward Islands, its moderate. Now is the time to review your preparedness plans as the system appears to be moving your way.  The rest of the region should keep monitoring.

INVEST 94L

Satellite View

This is a broad area of low pressure approaching parts of Central America. It has a 30% chance for organization over the next few days as it moves west. A recon plane is on stand-by Friday if needed. Even without development it could drop plenty of rain across the region leading to flooding concerns.

Models

The possible tracks suggest a movement toward the Yucatan Peninsula, then into the SW Gulf, and finally venturing across the same area that Alberto made landfall.

We'll be monitoring.

NOAA's 2024 Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) makes public its seasonal projections for the upcoming tropical season.

SATELLITE VIEW OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN

The forecast is alarming. NOAA suggests we could see  17 to 25 Named Systems, with 8 - 13 possibly becoming hurricanes, and out of that number  4 - 7  may develop into Major Hurricanes with category 3 winds, or those over 111 mph. 

Compare that with the average of 14, 7, & 3, and we could be in for a hectic summer and fall.  A reminder, this outlook can't tell us where and when a system will make landfall. It's just a guide as to how active a season might be.

2024 SEASONAL PROJECTIONS

The thinking behind the high forecast numbers is due to a variety of factors. The main ones being very hot water across the Atlantic Basin, and the emergence of La Niña.  

SIZZLING OCEAN WATER

A storm needs a minimum 80° of water temp in order to grow, less than that and systems will not develop. Presently, readings across much of the Tropical Atlantic Basin are very warm, thus providing the fuel hurricanes need to develop and intensify

The next Main Ingredient will be the emergence of La Niña, across the Eastern Pacific Ocean. 

• This is a cooling of the equatorial waters that not only impact marine currents, but atmospheric ones as well. 
• It's the opposite of El Niño which is a warming of the same waters.  
• While El Niño helps to keep systems in check in their developmental process, La Niña provides a more favorable environment for them to grow.  

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO for short) forecast, suggests El Niño waning thru June & July and La Niña emerging by July, August, and September. Unfortunately it will be near maximum intensity at the peak of hurricane season.

The graph above is set in three month intervals, with the first column showing AMJ, or April, May and June and the next batch MJJ, May, June, July and so on.

AN AREA TO WATCH

As of Thursday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area of clouds and rain around the Eastern Coast of Cuba, marked by the yellow X.  It's a trough, or a stretched out area of low pressure.

Once it moves into the yellow area on the map, it may develop. 

• NHC is giving it a very low chance for organization at the moment, at just 10% over a period of 7 days.
• If it were to develop any further, it should be a concern for marine interests.

This is a great reminder that we are about to enter the mean season. Let's work together to make sure we are ready for whatever Mother Nature sends our way.

WSVN will air a hurricane preparedness special, "Surviving a Storm", Friday May 31st, at 7 pm. It's full of great information to help you get ready in case of a threat.  This is a, "must watch"  for all. Specially our new arrivals to Florida and of course, a refresher for us hurricane battered veterans. 

 

Please stay with us over the next 6 months. Hurricane season runs June to November.  

The entire 7Weather Staff is dedicated to keeping you safe and informed. Please follow us on-air, on-line, and through my Phil Factor Updates.

Now is the time to prepare and get your storm survival plans ready.

We'll be watching

 

CSU Hurricane Season 2024 Outlook

Colorado State University (CSU) , issues the hurricane forecast for the 2024 season.

They are calling for what may turn out to be a very active year, forecasting 23 named system, out of which 11 could turn into hurricanes, and out of that number, 5 could reach major status. Those are systems with winds over 111 mph. The average season sees around, 14, 7 and 3.  Last year  the Atlantic basin spawned 20, 7, and 3. 

What about direct impacts?

CSU suggests the following:

1) Entire U.S. coastline – 62% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) – 34% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville – 42% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%

Why the high numbers?

There are varied ingredients for the possibility of an above average season. The two most important are the temp of the ocean water and the emergence of La Niña.

In order for storms to form, ocean water should be at 80 degrees or higher.  Look at all the red over the Atlantic, temps here are off the charts. This is the area where storms tend to organize the most.

There should be enough fuel here to brew and intensify systems.

The second most important ingredient is the return of La Nińa. This is a cooling of the Equatorial Waters of the Pacific Oceans. It not only impacts marine currents, but atmospheric ones as well.  This will impact the upper winds in the Atlantic and provide a better environment for storm growth.

With these two ingredients present, CSU is forecasting an above average year. Remember, not one single forecast will tell you where and when we will see a direct strike. 

Now is the time to prepare for a season that lasts 6 month. Build up your hurricane kit little by little.

From now through the start of June, there will be many other institutions issuing their own forecasts. NOAA will issue their official outlook at the end of May.

Of course my pledge to you, as well as the entire 7Weather team,  is to keep you informed and help guide you through any threat.

I'll be watching.